Comments on the Atlantic (30.08.2004 1841 UTC)

[DoctorHurricane2003]

M 30.08.2004 (MON AUG 30 2004)
1841 UTC (01:41 PM CDT)


HURRICANE FRANCES (06L)

After a brief weakening spell, it appears that Frances is becoming much better organized. As I expected, most models shifted towards the left today due to the building high pressure system north of Frances. Strength forecast: expect a slow, steady strengthening beginning at 5 or 11 PM tonight...and expect a more rapid intensification in the Bahamas around Thu/Fri...see below for wind intensity forecasts. Position forecast: expect Frances to continue westward through Wednesday...then expect to see a more WNWly motion to the S FL coastline. All persons in the TCI, Bahamas, and FL should be reviewing there preparation and/or evacuation plans. People in the TCI and the Bahamas should also be beginning to stock bottled water and canned goods. All persons should continue to monitor your local weather station or The Weather Channel for constant, up-to-date information on this storm.

WIND INTENSITY FORECASTS

INITIAL: 105 KT
NEXT ADVISORY: 110 KT
12 HR: 110 KT
24 HR: 115 KT*
36 HR: 120 KT*
48 HR: 125 KT*
72 HR: 135 KT*
96 HR: 145 KT*
120 HR: 145 KT*

*NOTE: During these times, Frances may go through several concentric eyewall cycles that could vary the intensity anywhere from 110 KT to 165 KT. Note that forecasts past 3 days may contain large errors and more will be known about that timeframe as the days approach.

U.S. GENERAL LANDFALL PROBABILITIES

FLORIDA KEYS: 10%
CAPE SABLE, FL TO MELBOURNE, FL: 61%
MELBOURNE, FL TO ST MARY'S INLET, FL/GA: 19%
ST MARY'S INLET, FL/GA TO CHARLESTON, SC: 2%
CHARLESTON, SC TO CAPE HATTERAS, NC: 8%


TROPICAL STORM HERMINE (08L)

Hermine has maintained herself the past 12 hours, and should continue to do so as she approaches the New England coastline tomorrow. Fluctuations in strength may occur through today. Expect heavy rain and gusty winds with the approach of Hermine.

WIND INTENSITY FORECAST

INITIAL: 45 KT
NEXT ADVISORY: 50 KT
12 HR: 50 KT
24 HR: 45 KT...LANDFALL
36 HR: EXTRATROPICAL

MOST LIKELY LANDFALL LOCATIONS
NEWPORT, RI: 46%
CHATAM, MA: 54%


INVEST 97L

This system has continued to look better organized throughout the day and advisories may be initiated at 5 PM on Tropical Depression 09L. It is not impossible that we may see Ivan by the end of the month. Expect 97L to continue to move wnward through the period.

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