12Z GFS shifts south to Miami.....

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derecho
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:15 pm

12Z GFS shifts south to Miami.....

#1 Postby Derecho » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:26 am

Don't worry...

Only 12 more GFS runs, and 6-12 more runs of each of the other globals, before a state can be chosen reasonably confidently for landfall :-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#2 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:27 am

Serious? link?
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#3 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:31 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

It's about 180 miles further west...right on the coast of FL near west palm.
Last edited by Air Force Met on Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
NorthGaWeather

#4 Postby NorthGaWeather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:32 am

lol well its the GFS
0 likes   
Top
logybogy

#5 Postby logybogy » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am

It looks like West Palm Beach, not Miami.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#6 Postby chris_fit » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:33 am

Isn't this the one that had it going into ga/sc/nc this morning?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Windsong
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 438
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:26 pm
Location: East Coast Central FL

#7 Postby Windsong » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:36 am

Airforce Met,

Just wanted to say thanks for all the info this morning. Nice to see you here being supportive and informative.
Windsong
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#8 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:36 am

It just means that Florida isn't off the hook yet.
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#9 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:39 am

NorthGaWeather wrote:lol well its the GFS


The GFS has done a pretty good job up until this point. It picked the turn back to the west 3 days before it happened...was right where it said it would be and turned it right when it actually turned.

One thing to remember is that the GFS has some old data still in it from previous model runs. The GIV data is in the model now...but some of the old model run dta is in there as well. It wil probably take another run or two to get it all out.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#10 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:42 am

Thunder44 wrote:It just means that Florida isn't off the hook yet.


Yep.

It also means the Carolinas aren't off the hook yet. :-)

I honestly have about as much confidence in where this storm will make landfall now as I did Saturday morning.
0 likes   
Top
Pileus
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 198
Joined: Sun May 11, 2003 5:47 pm
Location: Rock Hill S.C.

#11 Postby Pileus » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:54 am

Derecho, I know it's really far in advance but I'm spending Labor day in
the Smokies. If Frances gets into the eastern GOM will she turn because
of the trough and come in at the Fla panhandle and up the App spine?
It doesn't take much for runoff up there. Thanks
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm, Europa non è lontana, StormWeather and 106 guests