Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Monday August 30, 2004 7am
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Frances has weakened down to 105 kt. It appears, however, to be getting it's act back together. Therefore, I expect a category 4 hurricane once again in 24 hours or less.
The movement is due west at about 10 mph. Due to this, my forecast is to the south of the NHC track, into the Bahamas. With that ridge building like Arnold Schwarzenegger, I expect a pretty much north of west track to occur.
As for intensity... as of 7 am EDT, the outflow is expanding and deep convection, evident by the ring of red in the IR4 shows that Frances may be getting her act together. I will call for less strengthening than last time, but I am still taking Frances up to a category 5 hurricane. Eyewall Replacement Cycles, and fluctuations can be expected.
NOTE: No matter how strong it is when it gets in there, the heat potenial in the Bahamas is great enough for very sudden strengthening. So if this storm enters at 135 mph and rapidly deepens 20 mph in 2 hrs, then the intensity may be MUCH greater.
12 HRS-- 20.0N-- 61.8W-- 110 kt
24 HRS-- 20.4N-- 64.0W-- 115 kt
36 HRS-- 20.6N-- 67.0W-- 115 kt
48 HRS-- 21.0N-- 69.3W-- 120kt
72 HRS-- 22.3N-- 72.2W-- 120 kt
96 HRS-- 23.8N-- 74.9W-- 130 kt
120 HRS- 24.6N-- 77.0W-- 140 kt
...
