frances forecast #11 60miles east of MIA Sat

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

frances forecast #11 60miles east of MIA Sat

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:39 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


graphics available in 5 to 10 minutes
0 likes   
Top
btsgmdad
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 371
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 9:51 am
Location: Lincoln Park, MI

#2 Postby btsgmdad » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:41 am

Yikes! :cry: :cry:
0 likes   
Top
weatherlover427

#3 Postby weatherlover427 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:43 am

I don't like that 130kt at 120 hrs :eek: ...
0 likes   
Top
Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#4 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:45 am

Dead on Derek, see you've joined me. This is a south Florida hurricane crossing over into the eastern GOM as it rounds the ridge and gets drawn northward by the trough.

I never did buy into the slow westward track as this ridge captured Frances. We've seen all year the strength this ridge has moved these systems and I believe the eye even out ran the upper structure this morning as it accelerated. I would not be surprised to see some forward movement between 15-20mph over the next couple days.
0 likes   
My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#5 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:48 am

Wow ... all the way to 66W before she crosses 20N ...

That would be ominous.

No ill feeling towards you, but here's hoping you're too far south with this. :-/
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:52 am

This will NOT cross Florida on this track. This ends at 5 days. If I had to extend, a turn to the NNW would have been shown. This is an EC event, not GOM the way things are looking now. One should not extrapolate these forecasts beyond 5 days
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:52 am

graphics now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31416
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#8 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:55 am

good forecast Derek Ortt,I feel that's most likely to happen like you say I'm afraid.
0 likes   
Top
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6685
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

EC Event

#9 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:03 am

Derek Ortt wrote:This will NOT cross Florida on this track. This ends at 5 days. If I had to extend, a turn to the NNW would have been shown. This is an EC event, not GOM the way things are looking now. One should not extrapolate these forecasts beyond 5 days


An "East Coast Event" that sounds like
the premier of a new movie or something.
But anyway, I still believe making a prediction
5 days or more out is like throwing darts blindfolded,
sometimes you will hit the board but most times
you won't. Thanks for the post and prediction.
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#10 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:05 am

Hey Derek.. If & thats a big if, all 5 day forecasts are subject to errors but if this hurricane is close to where you put it in 5 days Miami would experience some very rough weather??
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:06 am

Unfortunately, I need to make a call soon for the University.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:07 am

miami would get hurricane force winds, but probably not the eye wall on that track
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#13 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:09 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Unfortunately, I need to make a call soon for the University.


Better to error on the side of caution!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#14 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:11 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Unfortunately, I need to make a call soon for the University.


So you mean if the game is postponed, we have you to blame? :grr: :grr:

Edit: Just kidding of course. I'm sure you'll do whatever is best.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

#15 Postby Stephanie » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:39 am

GEEZ Derek! The Bahamas look like they're going to be wiped out if it goes back to a cat 4! They really won't have much of an affect on France's intensity as well.
0 likes   
Top
LilNoles2004
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 47
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 11:45 am
Location: Crawfordville, FL
Contact:
Contact LilNoles2004

Derek...

#16 Postby LilNoles2004 » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:43 am

Derek, do you have any imput as to if the game should be played? If you don't think that Miami should hold the game this weekend, suggest moving the game to Tallahassee ;) ....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

Re: Derek...

#17 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 am

LilNoles2004 wrote:Derek, do you have any imput as to if the game should be played? If you don't think that Miami should hold the game this weekend, suggest moving the game to Tallahassee ;) ....


LOL!!

Nice try ... :-)
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Aug 30, 2004 12:05 pm

Even though UM writes my paychecks, I'm a Notre Dame fan so the game can go to Tallahassee as far as I care

Regarding the storm, the Bahamas have no affect on a TC, except maybe for the large islands in the NW Bahamas
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ElectricStorm, Europa non è lontana and 122 guests