What's the worst possible scenerio with this storm?

[logybogy]

It goes on a more southerly track and then makes landfall coming in North North West or due north just south of Miami and then rides up the entire south east Florida coast?

If this happened, all of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties would get the eye of the storm and depending on its strength and wind field Category 4 or 5 winds.

If this happened, you could potentially have Hurricane Andrew like devestation spread across a three county area where 5 million people live.

Can it get much worse than this?

[TampaFl]

Not really. That would be catastrophic Heck, anywhere frances hits will be catastrophic.

Robert

[crazycajuncane]

This topic has been beaten to death, go over the last couple of pages for your answer!

Thanks!

[feederband]

Worst case would be ne quad over my house....

[TheShrimper]

If it came in at Miami as the bullseye and exited just south of Tampa. Miami and Lauderdale would be devistated along with Tampa, St.Pete and Clearwater...Then you have the upper gulf coast to deal with.

[chris_fit]

Robert is right... anywhere will be catastropic... This Hurricane won't be a cat 3 for too much longer

[logybogy]

I'm not sure. Tampa is a few hundred miles inland from Miami. I'm guessing if it did that path, Tampa would have similar damage that Orlando did from Charley.

Cat 1/2 winds but no widespread devestation.

[dhweather]

Catastrophic will be where Frances makes landfall.

[feederband]

depends where you went.. north east orlando and kississimee saw some wide spread damage as well as a huge power loss...

[soonertwister]

It takes a LONG time for a cat 4-5 storm to wind down over a flat peninsula with warm water on both sides, and probably soaked ground underneath.

[HURAKAN]

logybogy, if this worse case scenario becomes a reality, I think the damage will be so high that Andrew will be ashamed of itself. We have to remember that Andrew destroyed the Homestead-Florida City area, but mostly the Miami area, specially the downtown, was not hard hit. If Frances hits Miami's downtown as Cat. 3 - 5, the damege will be catastrophic.

[sprink52]

Worst case would be a land fall near North Miami Beach/Aventura as a Cat 5 moving less than 5 MPH then meandering to Lake Okeechobee and stalling for about twelve hours over the lake. This would over come all of the dike system
and flood most of 4 counties. The storm would not fall below a Cat 4 and proceed to the Tampa Bay area and enter the GOM after meandering over the Penninsula for about 24 hrs. Once she enters the GOM she reintensifies to Cat 5 storm and accelerates towards Galveston/Houston. As Galveston is being evacuated, the storm suddenly makes an un expected right turn and races towards New Orleans. The city goes into a mass panic as the storm approaches and floods the city with a 30 foot storm surge,

Now THAT is a worst case!!!

[caneman]

I'm not sure. Tampa is a few hundred miles inland from Miami. I'm guessing if it did that path, Tampa would have similar damage that Orlando did from Charley.

Cat 1/2 winds but no widespread devestation.

No, this isn't right. Total width of state I believe is only about 120 miles. Orlando was 109 miles from landfall of Charley and we got 105 mph Cat. 3 winds in Kissimmee. So a decrease only a decrease of 40 of mph. The storm was moving 20 mph. So something with this type of speed as a CAt. 4 or 5 would do significant damage across the whole width of the state.

[Downdraft]

Robert is right... anywhere will be catastropic... This Hurricane won't be a cat 3 for too much longer

Oh really? It's a cat 4 right now and at times a marginal cat 5! On what do you base your assumption?

[stormchazer]

Robert is right... anywhere will be catastropic... This Hurricane won't be a cat 3 for too much longer

Oh really? It's a cat 4 right now and at times a marginal cat 5! On what do you base your assumption?

I think that he meant it would get stronger.....

[Big_Steve]

If the hurricane hit New Orleans as either a CAT 4 or a CAT 5.

[btsgmdad]

I heard John Hope say for years that a Cat 5 over New Orleans would be the worst natural disaster the US had ever seen.

[NFLnut]

I'm not sure. Tampa is a few hundred miles inland from Miami. I'm guessing if it did that path, Tampa would have similar damage that Orlando did from Charley.

Cat 1/2 winds but no widespread devestation.

No, this isn't right. Total width of state I believe is only about 120 miles. Orlando was 109 miles from landfall of Charley and we got 105 mph Cat. 3 winds in Kissimmee. So a decrease only a decrease of 40 of mph. The storm was moving 20 mph. So something with this type of speed as a CAt. 4 or 5 would do significant damage across the whole width of the state.

We had gusts of 105-110 in the Longwood area, which is northeast of Orlando. My first Hurricane I remember was Donna, and this was by far the worst I've ever been through.

The scariest part was the quiet few minutes after the eye had passed. I heard what were 60-foot trees all around my house (swamp behind me) falling one after another. I heard thud after thud, and a couple were close enough that I thought it had hit my house and/or AC unit. I didn't know where in my house to run until the falling trees stopped thirty minutes later. The next day I was shocked at how many 60-70' trees were either snapped in half or just uprooted altogether. As it turned out, the only trees that actually hit my house were two 50-foot tall palm trees that fell in the front part of the eye. I now have a new "water feature" in my kitchen.

[TLHR]

Worst case scenario is for Frances to come ashore in Miami.
Second worst case is for Frances to come ashore near Beaufort, SC. This would put Charleston, Georgetown, Myrtle Beach and Wilmington in the NE quadrant. And with the ground super-saturated from Bonne, Charley, and now Gaston, trees would come down with ease and flooding would be terrible.

[Anonymous]

Really, it depends on who you are and where you are... For me, the worst scenario would be landfall near St Augustine moving NW...

But overall I'd have to say, South Florida dont need this nor does central Florida in the Orlando area