Aug 29 and storms brought to you by the letter H

[senorpepr]

Yet another storm in this marathon: Hermine... Up next is Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl.

Below is a breakdown of what storms were active on Aug 29 between 1954 and 2003. (Note: storm numbers in parenthesis had been finalled out by NHC prior to Aug 29) If applicable, there is a listing of what date the "H" storm developed on. At the end the list is the 50 year average ('54-'03).

Please Note: Number represents the number of storms (excluding subtropical storms) thus far in the season. The start dates of the H-storm are when these systems were tropical depressions.

Active Storms on August 29, followed by the date the H-storm formed.

03 6; Sep 03
02 4; Sep 12
01 4; Sep 21
00 (4); Sep 15
99 3, 4, (5); Sep 19
98 4; Sep 17
97 (4); n/a
96 5, 6, 7; Sep 03
95 8, 9, (10), 11, 12; Aug 22
94 (3); n/a
93 5; Sep 18
92 (1); n/a
91 2; n/a
90 7, 8; Aug 25
89 6; Sep 10
88 3; Sep 19
87 (2); n/a
86 3; n/a
85 5; Sep 21
84 1; Sep 23
83 2; n/a
82 2; n/a
81 (4); Sep 11
80 (3); Sep 20
79 4, 6; Sep 15
78 4; Sep 12
77 1; n/a
76 5, 6; Oct 22
75 3, 4; Oct 24
74 2, 3; n/a
73 3; n/a
72 2, 3; n/a
71 4; Sep 11
70 (4); n/a
69 6; Sep 14
68 (4); n/a
67 1; Oct 19
66 6; Sep 20
65 2; n/a
64 3, 4; Sep 28
63 (2); Oct 25
62 1, 2; n/a
61 (1); Oct 27
60 4; n/a
59 (5); Sep 27
58 4; Sep 21
57 (2); n/a
56 (2); n/a
55 5; Sep 10
54 3; Oct 05

====
Average # of TS on Aug 29: 03.82 ('04: above average by 4.18 TSs)
Average Date for H-storm*: Sep 21 ('04: ahead of schedule by 23 days)

* H-storm occurred 62% of the time in the past 50 years.

Note: The following "30-yr averages" encompass the years 2003-1974

TS YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 8 vs 9.97 (-1.97)
HR YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 4 vs 5.83 (-1.83)
MHR YTD vs 30yr Seasonal Average: 3 vs 2.20 (+0.80)

[senorpepr]

2003 Tropical Storm Henri (Hit FL)
2002 Tropical Storm Hanna (Hit Central Gulf Coast)
2001 Hurricane (2) Humberto (Fish)
2000 Tropical Storm Helene (Hit Lesser/Greater Antilles, SE US)
1999 Tropical Storm Harvey (Hit FL, Bahamas)
1998 Tropical Storm Hermine (Hit LA)
1997 None
1996 Hurricane (4) Hortense* (Hit Lesser Antilles, PR, Skirted Bahamas, Hit Nova Scotia, Skirted Newfoundland)
1995 Hurricane (2) Humberto (Fish)
1994 None
1993 Hurricane (1) Harvey (Fish)
1992 None
1991 None
1990 Tropical Storm Hortense (Fish)
1989 Super Hurricane (5) Hugo* (Hit Lesser Antilles, SC)
1988 Hurricane (4) Helene (Fish)
1987 None
1986 None
1985 Tropical Storm Henri (Hit NY, CT, RI)
1984 Hurricane (1) Hortense (Hit Bermuda)
1983 None
1982 None
1981 Hurricane (4) Harvey (Fish)
1980 Tropical Storm Hermine (Hit Central America, Yucatan)
1979 Hurricane (1) Henri (Hit Yucatan)
1978 Tropical Storm Hope (Fish)
1977 None
1976 Hurricane (1) Holly (Fish)
1975 Tropical Storm Hallie (Off US SE Coast)
1974 None
1973 None
1972 None
1971 Tropical Storm Heidi (Hit ME)
1970 None
1969 Hurricane (1) Holly (Hit Lesser Antilles)
1968 None
1967 Hurricane (1) Heidi (Brushed Bermuda)
1966 Tropical Storm Hallie (Hit Mexico)
1965 None
1964 Super Hurricane (4) Hilda* (Hit Cuba, LA, MS, AL, FL, GA)
1963 Tropical Storm Helena (Hit Lesser Antilles)
1962 None
1961 Super Hurricane (5) Hattie* (Hit Belize)
1960 None
1959 Hurricane (3) Hannah (Fish)
1958 Hurricane (4) Helene (Hit NC, Newfoundland, Ireland)
1957 None
1956 None
1955 Hurricane (3) Hilda (Hit Greater/Nrn Lesser Antilles, Yucatan, Mexico)
1954 Hurricane (4) Hazel* (Hit Srn Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Bahamas, NC, VA)

"H" names in the past...
36% became category one hurricanes
24% became category two hurricanes
20% became category three hurricanes
16% became category four hurricanes
04% became category five hurricanes

(Names with asterisk denotes retired name)

[Hurricanehink]

Cool, good job.

[Hyperstorm]

It's very interesting to note that the H storm has occured later than this date on all the seasons since 1950, with the exception of the incredibly active 1995 season and the active 1990 season.

We can now be more than sure that this will be an active season. As I said at the beginning of the month, there was NO reason why Dr. Gray needed to lower those numbers...except for the fact that he always does so.