Interesting comment on Melbourne AFD

[sfwx]

THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO
BRING FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL
MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED FRANCES HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST
TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STEER FRANCES W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN
POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN FRANCES TO OUR
EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z
UKMET AND GFS DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS FRANCES ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL
FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

LONG TERM....KELLY

[paulvogel]

three days ago was jupiter fl, but I think Francis will shear down to cat 2

but as this is a guesscast, my " zone of posibility"
includes texas and Long Island

[Downdraft]

I agree with Melbourne NWS confidence is low. This may be another Floyd hugging the Florida coast. I'm more interested in the ridge now than the hurricane.

[SFLgirl]

I don't want to read anymore! I live 2 miles from the Jupiter Inlet. :eek:

[Brent]

Yikes.

[das8929]

At the least if this passes close to us we can expect at least hurricane-force winds, because it looks like it will pass closer to us then Floyd did.

[soonertwister]

I don't want to read anymore! I live 2 miles from the Jupiter Inlet.

My best advice to anyone living anywhere near water connected nearby to the ocean or near the ocean is that if a category 4-5 hurricane comes in your direction, your best bet is to be far away from there when the hurricane arrives. If it hits on your doorstep, you really wouldn't want to be trapped in the aftermath under those conditions anyway, regardless of how sturdy your particular residence might be.

[KeyLargoDave]

It's OK SFLgirl, take a breath, we're here to watch out and help you.

Do you have a strong place with good shutters to go inland? Or is your place strong and far enough from predicted surge?

Do you know if you're in an evacuation zone? You might need a plan A (board up and stay) and plan B (pack and evacuate) and a time to decide which to follow.

I like your area. I was sitting in a restaurant in Jupiter on a Saturday in Aug. 1992 when I heard the TV announce hurricane warnings for Cat. 4 Andrew. I'd been canoeing the Loxahatchee all day Satuday and didn't even know there was a storm. From Saturday night to Sunday, I drove to Coconut Grove, then to the Keys (gathering people and important papers), then to Highlands County to evacuate.

I'll never forget Jupiter.

Dave

Good luck!

Dave

[das8929]

I live about 2 miles from the Intracoastal right next to a creek. Unfortunately I live in an evac. zone even for Cat 1's. If it were to hit here it would be interesting.....

[Floridacaner]

I don't want to read anymore! I live 2 miles from the Jupiter Inlet.

Right there with ya SFLgirl. I live in the Palm Bay/Melbourne area. My grandfather lives in Satellite beach, 4 blocks from the ocean.

[charley]

I'm right there with you, too! We're in Melbourne/Palm Bay, as well. When I went out to get supplies today, only a couple people seemed to be buying stuff in preparation. When I bought batteries, the cashier commented, "Boy, that's a lot of batteries!" I said, "Well, with a category 4/5 hurricane possibly heading our way, I figured it's better to be safe than sorry." She looked surprised, asking, "There's a hurricane coming?"

It would be verrrrry interesting (and not in a good way) if Frances hit here. My dh was told by his boss that we didn't need to worry because hurricanes "never hit here". I have to hope 'ol boss woman is right, but we're going to be as prepared as we can, just in case she isn't.

Any clue where a person should plan to evacuate TO in the event we need to leave????

[SeaBrz_FL]

Kinda funny Jupiter story about Andrew: My brother-in-law was in the Coast Guard living (with my sister and their 4 yr old) in the CG housing by the Jupiter Lighthouse. Four days before the predicted landfall, my BIL sent my sister and nephew to my house in inland Central FL house (near Orlando) at the time. He planned to come up a day or two later, but instead was sent to Miami to move small CG boats to inland canals under residential bridges. Neither Jupiter, nor our area, got more than a slight breeze, but it was very anxious for a couple days.

SFLGirl -- get prepared like others suggest because YOU NEVER KNOW FOR SURE, but hopefully that story will give you a different perspective about how fickle these monsters are.

-- SeaBrz

"Currently checking for cheap airfare to Vegas. Time for a vacation anyway."

[vacanechaser]

one question..... where in the official forecast does it show jupiter inlet... or any landfall for that matter... this looks to be someone extraping the landfall point frm day 5... whoever it was will be eating crow i asure you...

[Brent]

Any clue where a person should plan to evacuate TO in the event we need to leave????

INLAND and preferably as far from the projected path as possible.

[Florida_brit]

Have been lurking for over a year here....finally decided to join....

SFLgirl - Parents "live" about 1 mile inland from the intercoastal near Stuart....parents boarded up the house with hurricane shutters and flew back to UK today due to vacation ended...hopefully they won't have to return next weekend to mop.....watching the movements via the net from the UK....with interest!

[Amanzi]

I live about 2 miles from the Intracoastal right next to a creek. Unfortunately I live in an evac. zone even for Cat 1's. If it were to hit here it would be interesting.....

The intracoastal is part of my back yard, and 2 streets in front of my place is the entire Atlantic ocean... so I feel know just how you feel

[Florida_brit]

The 5 o'clock photo from the NOAA shows landfall as being landfall at jupiter/stuart area...obviously subject to the usual disclaimers which everyone knows about.....yawn! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

[Weatherboy1]

FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS FRANCES ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET

I, too, live in Jupiter ... a few miles inland from the inlet and not on the water. But I do live in a "major hurricane" evac. zone. The local maps say a 1 or 2 wouldn't require an evac., but in a 4 or 5, I should leave. Of course, I'm supposed to be leaving for a long Labor Day trip to Connecticut and Boston, which may have to be scrapped if there's a serious 'cane coming this way. What a pain in the $%^ this girl is turning out to be.

[SeaBrz_FL]

I'm 700 feet from the shoreline. Early mindless prep tip to relieve some stress for coastal residents:

Contact your city/county Public Utilities division tomorrow. Nicely ask for three times the number of free sandbags they will offer. Fill them from your nearest source of sand (beach if not closer). Stack them neatly out of the way. Then "fahgedaboutit" until needed.

If advisories come, first place layers outside of doors (including garage door) that will be most susceptible to flooding. Use remainder for other first floor doors.

In December, take all bags back to the source, dump 'em and throw the bags away.

[vacanechaser]

The 5 o'clock photo from the NOAA shows landfall as being landfall at jupiter/stuart area...obviously subject to the usual disclaimers which everyone knows about.....yawn! http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 2053W5.gif

sorry to disagree, but it does not suggest any sort of thing... the five day point is stll offshore... the cone of probablity is not the samething.... you can imply landfall from the track, but there is no official landfall... this is the mis-information that always cause problems for folks who dont know any better....