Above are two examples of storms that are carrying a similar track as Frances. Just because a storm is heading towards S Florida doesnt mean it will hit there, as seen by Floyd... However the possibility does still exist. I would argue though, that storms have a history of turning north at the last minute rather than impacting S Florida head on. Just look at the numbers, how many SC / NC hits have we had in the last decade alone by CV storms, and compare that to S Flordia over the past 20 - 30 years!
Just because it is currently heading towards Flordia, does not mean it will hit Florida.
Bottom line is that it is way too earily to start predicting where the storm will hit. Monitor the models out to 72 hours but any forcast beyond that is a guess at this point... Everyone on the EC is currently in the potential threat zone and should simply MONITOR the situation until we are a few more days ahead and have a better grasp on things.
