It shows Frances going on a more southerly and westerly course consistent to the observations we are getting from the satellite picture right now. I think as the storm keeps going west more and more of the models will shift to the BAMM position.
I think the model to watch is BAMM
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
logybogy
I think the model to watch is BAMM
It shows Frances going on a more southerly and westerly course consistent to the observations we are getting from the satellite picture right now. I think as the storm keeps going west more and more of the models will shift to the BAMM position.
0 likes
-
Guest
-
logybogy
-
Derek Ortt
-
freeport_texas2005
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 53
- Joined: Fri Jul 30, 2004 8:01 pm
-
KeyLargoDave
- Category 1
- Posts: 423
- Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:03 pm
- Location: 25 05' 80 26'
- Contact:
I'd rather not have the BAMM (at least this run) be right.
75 W will be the deciding point. Anything north of about 24 at that point is great for the Keys and extreme south Dade. If it's already at 25 or greater then, and trending north, all of lower Florida starts breathing easier.
I'm very concerned about the Abacos. They look to be under a very bad storm, on the bad side, and hints at a slowdown only make it worse.
People from Walker's Cay down to Hopetown are, I hope, making preparations now.
75 W will be the deciding point. Anything north of about 24 at that point is great for the Keys and extreme south Dade. If it's already at 25 or greater then, and trending north, all of lower Florida starts breathing easier.
I'm very concerned about the Abacos. They look to be under a very bad storm, on the bad side, and hints at a slowdown only make it worse.
People from Walker's Cay down to Hopetown are, I hope, making preparations now.
0 likes
-
logybogy
I'm don't know anything about the calculus of these models. I'm going by the trends. The storm is moving just barely do north of west now. Almost all of the models say it should be going WNW or NW. If the storm keeps going west over the next day, the models will be rendered wrong and will track south and west to adjust, going more to the BAMM position.
0 likes
-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23080
- Age: 68
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Beware the BAMM/BAMD when the environment ahead of a storm is changing. Those models are not "dynamic" in that they don't use physics to calculate the FUTURE state of the atmosphere. Instead, they assume the status-quo and move the storm along in the CURRENT stream.
That works good for the deep tropics when there aren't any upper trofs moving around to mess up the wind flow aloft (generally south of 20N). But the BAMs are not trustworthy in the subtropics where fronts come into play.
However, if I lived in Florida I'd stock up on supplies -- Carolinas, too.
That works good for the deep tropics when there aren't any upper trofs moving around to mess up the wind flow aloft (generally south of 20N). But the BAMs are not trustworthy in the subtropics where fronts come into play.
However, if I lived in Florida I'd stock up on supplies -- Carolinas, too.
0 likes