Problem with ANY of the models right now...

[ericinmia]

Frances is and has been heading just north of west for a period of time now.

Those models show the storm heading NW or WNW for at least a while, before recurving west-ward. Howevever Francis has already begun his west-ward trek...

NO-ONE will win this debate on the models except for the simple fact above. Obviously the models are all struggeling right now, sadly; thus, we need to simple wait this out for the synoptic data from the missions to Frances today. With the new pressure, wind, etc. patterns that data will provide we should be able to ascertain a much better 3 day forecast at the least.

It is also notable... These models are not run at the same times daily. Sometimes comparing one model to another is not possible due to new data that one may have digested.

-Eric

[Stratosphere747]

As of now all those models look good...Now if it gets to 57 58 and still on a west course then there may be reason to shift more south...

[logybogy]

UKMET does not look good in short term. It's way way too north.

[hial2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Crossing 55 and very near due west!!

UKMET appears to be already off track,according to the plot map

[canegrl04]

I think we will be seeing the models trend more south after Frances gets to 57W maintaing her Westward motion.

This just goes to prove the models know as much about 5 day trendsa s we do

[Stratosphere747]

Excatly...It should according to all those models begin to take a more WNW turn soon....If not then we will see a bend back to the south...I am not even looking at 5 days out though...Just looking at the next day or two...Brownsville to Maine is still has a chance...