Just think Andrew

[Stormcenter]

For those in Florida or anywhere else along the east coast just think Andrew when you see the NW turn predicted by some of the models. He and Georges were suppose to do the same thing but it never happened. The high pressure system won out both times. Yeah I know predicting storms has improved since then but NOT to the point where you can say for sure that Florida is out of the woods and SC/NC is in big trouble, come on now it still not even passed Puerto Rico. I really do wish though that Frances would still somehow turn out to sea and spare the US East Coast residents alot stress.

[ericinmia]

Yeah there is a lot of -removed- away or towards people right now.

We will have to wait out to see what is going to happen... I envy the days when we will be able to predict these storms with precision... 7+ days out!

-Eric

[LAwxrgal]

Exactly. Nobody knows exactly what Frances will do.

Nobody is out of the woods until the storm is north of your latitude. The best thing you can do is prepare as if the storm is coming, and make sure you have your hurricane plan complete and ready to put into action if need be.

[Jevo]

For those in Florida or anywhere else along the east coast just think Andrew when you see the NW turn predicted by some of the models. He and Georges were suppose to do the same thing but it never happened. The high pressure system won out both times. Yeah I know predicting storms has improved since then but NOT to the point where you can say for sure that Florida is out of the woods and SC/NC is in big trouble, come on now it still not even passed Puerto Rico. I really do wish though that Frances would still somehow turn out to sea and spare the US East Coast residents alot stress.

Mann i hear ya im in Fort Laud and I have a BIG Labor Day party next Saturday.. Im doinbg Voodoo to get France to go away from me

[KeyLargoDave]

I disagree with this point, which keeps getting repeated:

"Andrew was supposed to turn north."

Absolutely contrary to the recollection of everyone I know in the Florida Keys. From the moment Andrew became scary, east of the Bahamas, all we heard in forecasts was, "doesn't look like anything will turn this."

That's why we got the heck out of town.

Who knows, maybe some people heard uncertainty, predictions of troughs, whatever. But a lot of friends to this day talk about how certain the forecasts were at the time, that Andrew would not turn.

It was a long time ago, though. Amazing that it was only in the last year or two, a decade after the storm, that some of the crushed buildings along the turnpike near Cutler Ridge got rebuilt.

Dave

[ericinmia]

incorrect...

the nhc originally predicted andrew to recurve out to sea!
That is until it took a bea-line for miami-dade county.

-Eric

[Derecho]

For those in Florida or anywhere else along the east coast just think Andrew when you see the NW turn predicted by some of the models.

That's flat out false. The models with a NW turn back then were the old climo models...CLIPER, etc......similar to the A98E of today.

The GFS (then called the AVN) and the GFDL called Andrew's movement almost perfectly, never had a NW turn, and showed the strong ridge and west movement. NHC fortunately went with the AVN and GFDL and ignored the climo models.

[NorthGaWeather]

Yep Andrew was forecast to curve.

[Derecho]

incorrect...

the nhc originally predicted andrew to recurve out to sea!

That's FLAT OUT TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY WRONG.

NHC NEVER EVER forecast Andrew to recurve out to sea, or anything even CLOSE to a recurve out to sea. Unbelievable that myth lives on.

NHC never forecast Andrew to weaken or disappate. Every single Andrew forecast prior to Andrew's landfall in Florida from the NHC had Andrew moving towards the US, and then towards Florida, and every advisory had the storm stronger in 72 hours than the initial point.

[KeyLargoDave]

While I repeat my agreement with Derecho, I will also point out we are comparing apples and oranges.

Andrew developed late. It had almost fallen apart once. At this point, 7-8 days away (or was it 4-5?), Norcross and others were watching a small, dying system, saying, well, keep an eye on this for next weekend.

But once we got to Friday, there just was not anything to suggest a strong turn.

On Saturday, people who paid attention heard ONLY that it was coming and nothing was turning it.

On Sunday, the authorities told us to get out of coastal Miami and Monroe.

It hit Monday morning at 5 a.m.

I don't doubt that some early model runs, especially CLIPPER as Derecho mentioned, had it doing some weird things.

[Myersgirl]

I do recall that Andrew was forecast to come in at a NW track. I remember this well because Dan Rather announced nationally that Fort Myers was on the direct path. We were almost unscathed, Andrew went due West and Homestead and Chockaloskee took the hit. (there was a perception that we were hit and the tourist cancelled in droves, another story!)

[ericinmia]

incorrect...

the nhc originally predicted andrew to recurve out to sea!

That's FLAT OUT TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY WRONG.

NHC NEVER EVER forecast Andrew to recurve out to sea, or anything even CLOSE to a recurve out to sea. Unbelievable that myth lives on.

NHC never forecast Andrew to weaken or disappate. Every single Andrew forecast prior to Andrew's landfall in Florida from the NHC had Andrew moving towards the US, and then towards Florida, and every advisory had the storm stronger in 72 hours than the initial point.

Before you act like a prick, know what your talking about

d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Track forecast errors by the NHC and by the suite of track prediction models are given in Table 4. On average, the NHC errors were about 30% smaller than the current 10-year average. The most significant changes in Andrew's track and intensity (see Fig. 1, Table 1) were generally well anticipated (noted in NHC's Tropical Cyclone Discussions) and the forecast tracks generally lie close to the best track. However, the rate of Andrew's westward acceleration over the southwestern Atlantic was greater than initially forecast. In addition, the NHC forecast a rate of strengthening that was less than what occurred during Andrew's period of rapid deepening.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1992andrew.html

-Eric

[KeyLargoDave]

Hey! name calling is uncalled for.

What you posted says the ACCELERATION wasn't correctly forecast -- not anything about an incorrect northward turn forecast.

Besides, we're talking perception here too. If many people thought they heard the NHC say, "it's going north," then for them, that's the reality. But I bet what a lot of people heard was something like "Often, a trough will pick up a storm in this position and turn it northward, but we don't see it happening...." -- and they stopped hearing after "northward."


Dave