Hurricane Forecast shifts causes distrust

[stormernie]

Yesterday, all the local media in Miami was stating that the storm was headed this way. Now that the storm will miss Florida all together. This is the kind of coverage that discourages the residents and cause them to ignore a real situation of life and death.

These models can easily change back to the original state and the storm may run up the coast. This constant back and forth only creates the general public to ignore future danger.

[ericinmia]

That's were darwinism comes in...

If people are ignorant of how predictions work, and they make the wrong choices, then they alone suffer the consequences.

Sadly as a community we may be better off without these fools. They generally are the same ones that cause other darwinistic style problems that can impact our lives.

-Eric

[HURAKAN]

1000% agree, still is very early to say whether it will go out or landfall. I just say that because where is located and because is forecast to move west or WNW, everyone from the Florida Keys to the Outer Banks should be vigiland and not getting crazy or disregarding that we have a serious threat.

[Rainband]

I highly doubt any of the mets said it will miss florida. It is true it could miss florida all together and I hope it does. Ours are saying we have days to watch it. I am sure thats what yours are saying. If any Met did say that, I wouldn't watch the channel anymore. It's both unfounded and unprofessional NO ONE knows for sure at this stage what Frances is going to do except Frances.

[Derecho]

People's silly misinterpreations of NHC tracks and model tracks cause me to distrust their judgement.

[x-y-no]

Yesterday, all the local media in Miami was stating that the storm was headed this way.

I watched Norcross and one of the others (can't remember - ch. 6 or 7) and I didn't hear either of them say that. In fact, Norcross made a big deal about the possibility of a "Gaston channel" maybe turning Frances north.

Now that the storm will miss Florida all together.

If this characterization is as accurate as the one above, then it's not worth much. How about supplying an exact quote from one of the local mets saying that?

This is the kind of coverage that discourages the residents and cause them to ignore a real situation of life and death.

It would be if your characterization were accurate. I haven't monitored all the stations and I'm not by a TV now, so I can't swear none of them said something of the sort, but I didn't hear it.

[KeyLargoDave]

Sorry, I disagree with the premise. Local mets never said "it's coming to Miami" and so they also never said "now it's not."

Come on. There's enough to discuss without have to mischaracterize what were obviously very uncertain forecasts for 8 days out just to get people in a lather over those damn TV weathercasters.

I have watched every local station since Friday. In particular, Brian Norcross drew an arrow on the NHC track and said specifically, "this track is NOT an arrow pointed at Miami" -- because even if the storm reaches the exact point in the Bahamas where NHC track shows it, at that time it may also be heading northerly.

[ChaserUK]

NO ONE knows for sure at this stage what Frances is going to do except Frances.

I am sure that even Frances does not know yet!!!

[AlabamaDave]

I suspect the local TV meteorologists are one of the major sources of forecast confusion for the general public. Many/most TV weathercasters have little or no business interjecting their own commentary about where storms are going to go and where they aren't, because most of them are not meteorologists and, at best, have little more training than the armchair weather fanatics who hang out on boards like this. I'm not saying all TV weathercasters need to tow the TPC party line, but they need to use more discretion in broadcasting their speculations about where a major, dangerous storm is going to go and where it isn't. Especially in a situation like this one.

[ericinmia]

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/loop/mrf_500p_loop.html

[ericinmia]

sorry for the double post... internet screwing up...

[HouTXmetro]

How about we scrap these long range models and go back to the three day forecast for public information purposes. That way the media can quit getting everyones panties all in a bunch.

[B-Bear]

I work in the medical field and we have a similar problem. Everybody comes to the doctor's office expecting to be prescribed an antibiotic when they have a viral infection or a cold, even though antibiotics do absolutely nothing to treat a viral infection. But doctors are running businesses, and they face the reality that, if they don't give the public what they want, the public will just go elsewhere to get it. This overprescription of antibiotics is against the public interest, as it promotes development of drug-resistant strains of bacteria.

I see a similar happening in the weather community. Meteoroligists are faced with a public that wants information about where these storms are headed. And even though the meterologists know that they cannot tell the public with any degree of certainty where these hurricanes are headed, they must contend with the reality that they too are part of a business that relies upon ratings. If they don't tell the public what they want to hear, the public will go elsewhere until they hear SOMETHING to soothe their worries--whether that SOMETHING is accurate or not.

I don't think there is anything wrong with mets discussing the possible scenarios that might unfold, because this kind of discourse serves to better educate the public regarding weather. However, I believe that mets should remain vigilent in reminding the public that weather forecasting is not an exact science and almost anything can happen--beginning and ending every report with, "If you live anywhere along the Gulf coast or Atlantic coast, you need to pay attention to this storm because it could impact your area."

[Thunder44]

I think this post is a load of bull.

[B-Bear]

I think this post is a load of bull.

What part?

[TerryAlly]

Yesterday, all the local media in Miami was stating that the storm was headed this way. Now that the storm will miss Florida all together. This is the kind of coverage that discourages the residents and cause them to ignore a real situation of life and death.

These models can easily change back to the original state and the storm may run up the coast. This constant back and forth only creates the general public to ignore future danger.

1. ALL the media? This kind of reporting will cause distrust of you on this board.

This is the kind of coverage that discourages the residents and cause them to ignore a real situation of life and death.

2. Agreed ... so the weather service must only forecast when they know for SURE where the hurricane will go. All this back and forth with the models is what discourages the media and may one day cause them to ignore a real situation of life and death.


In short ... lighten up on the messenger ... shoot the forecast and the models instead ...

Terry

[B-Bear]

*bump* for response.