Thoughts/comments welcomed.
Robert
FXUS62 KMFL 291716
AFDMFL
SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
.DISCUSSION...THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IN THIS CYCLE IS HURRICANE
FRANCES. BECAUSE OF THE LATEST TPC/HPC GUIDANCE WHICH WAS FROM 15UTC
HAVE HAD TO INCREASE THE WINDS IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PERIOD. WE ARE LIMITED TO 30 KNOTS IN THESE PERIODS FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE RAIN PROBABILITY BECAUSE OF THE DAY
5-7 FRANCES TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY AT THIS TIME THESE GRIDDED
CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL BE VIEWED AS UNCERTAIN. OR TO A CERTAIN
EXTENT CAN BE IGNORED SINCE A RELATIVELY LITTLE ERROR IN FRANCES
WILL GIVE A BIG ERROR IN WHAT WE HAVE PUT IN THE GRIDS. WHEN THE
DATA FROM THE RECON AND NOAA PLANES GET INTO THE 30/OOUTC MODEL RUNS
WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER INDICATION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE POSSIBLE TRACK OF THE STORM.
IN THE TIME UNTIL THE APPROACH OF FRANCES OR BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
WE SHOULD SEE LITTLE IN DAY TO DAY CHANGES. WE SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
IN A VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
OF A TROUGH THAN A RIDGE. SO WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH LITTLE CHANGE
UNTIL THE HURRICANE STARTS ITS IMPACT.
&&.MARINE...BOATING SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEK. THEN BY LATE
WEEK REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL FRANCES TRACK WE SHOULD SEE
DETERIORATING BOATING ESPECIALLY IN THE ATLANTIC.&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 91 77 91 / 10 40 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 91 79 90 / 10 40 20 30
MIAMI 78 91 79 91 / 10 40 20 30
NAPLES 77 90 75 91 / 05 30 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
