Again, New Models verify S. FL probably out of the woods?

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Burn1
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Again, New Models verify S. FL probably out of the woods?

#1 Postby Burn1 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:18 pm

Whenever weakness is mentioned later in the forcast it is almost certainty we will see that turn before S. FL. Again, so many factors have to come together for a Cane to hit S. FL. Which is why it is so rare......Hopefully it will stay that way.

I think we have a better chance to see snow (Jan 77') than we do a Hurricane landfall in Ft.Laud/Miami
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#2 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:23 pm

NEVER say never.

In 1987 Sir Micheal Fish was asked a question regarding a hurricane.

He was asked "I heard there was a hurricane on it's way"Micheal however said there weren't going to be a hurricane(he was right)

He said the worst would miss us here in the U.k,yet that night the storm took an unexpected turn north and hit.It was the most powerful storm for over 200 years.

So never say Never when it comes to severe depressions/Hurricanes
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Re: Again, New Models verify S. FL probably out of the woods

#3 Postby dhweather » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:25 pm

Burn1 wrote:Whenever weakness is mentioned later in the forcast it is almost certainty we will see that turn before S. FL. Again, so many factors have to come together for a Cane to hit S. FL. Which is why it is so rare......Hopefully it will stay that way.

I think we have a better chance to see snow (Jan 77') than we do a Hurricane landfall in Ft.Laud/Miami


I wouldn't base anything on one set of model runs, particularly >72 hours.
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Re: Again, New Models verify S. FL probably out of the woods

#4 Postby B-Bear » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:27 pm

Burn1 wrote:I think we have a better chance to see snow (Jan 77') than we do a Hurricane landfall in Ft.Laud/Miami


I hope you realize that with that one bold statement, you probably will now be single-handedly responsible for Frances hitting Miami dead on. :roll:
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NorthGaWeather

#5 Postby NorthGaWeather » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:28 pm

Sorry for you folks to the South in FL but I don't want this to curve North and hit the GA coast.
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#6 Postby KWT » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:30 pm

Yes thats another good point,the models do tend to change alot.

just yesterday it loked like the Azores high was here to stay for a week,yet 12 hours later looks like we will have both an Icelantic Low and ex-Gaston on top of us.

that just shows how much flip-flopping about the models can do.

oh and by the way have you seen the NCH prediction,yes it almost hits the Miami region dead on.
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