Frances Advisories

[TampaFl]

The key word is "This track "WOULD", not could or should!. It should be taken with a grain of salt. Why all of a sudden is the NHC buying into the GFDL when all along they (NHC) has said it has been to the rightof most of the other models. Now if the UKMET and the EURO and GFS all of sudden start showing the same trend, well then I might buy into it. Plus why then is the NHC still going in the middle if it appears to be trending nw (the GFDL)? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[Stormcenter]

I like reading evryones BOLD predictions as to where a storm that is still 1,500 plus miles away from the US coast is or is not going to make landfall. I'm here to tell you that NOTHING is said and done with this storm. If you think that then man you must have a direct line to the man above and I don't mean the head of the NHC either.

[Derek Ortt]

Those GOM forecasts are even more homer forecasts than an NC forecast is. There are 3-5 models showing a turn to the Carolinas, but only <b>1 friggen model</b> showing the GOM.

I thought Charley would have stopped wanting to experience a hurricane (no offense if nobody is -removed-, there just seems to be some of that in the tone of a couple posts)

[Floridacaner]

The turn has finally occurred? What turn are you talking about? To the WNW? That would lessen the threat to Florida?

I'm leaning more toward FL than I was yesterday. The last runs that I saw of the NOGAPS and GFDL had Frances moving NW into a 1024 mb ridge. I think the cane will have a more northerly component by the time it reaches the Bahamas, but there's no way FL is off the hook. I'm thinking Space Coast.

That's not good Chili Pepper, I live on the Space Coast.
But that aside, everyone on the east coast (The keys to NC) should be prepared. The people on the space coast have this "we never get hit attitude", and that scares the bejesus out of me. Until Frances gets north of 30N, everyone in Florida should watch.

[JTD]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Frances isn't experiencing much interfering wind shear, but there's a lot of dry air surrounding the hurricane. Likely, an eyewall replacement cycle is the more plausible solution. The WATL is a mess with Gaston now onshore in South Carolina, a potentially developing depression east of there ... an upper low carved out SE of Gaston from the outflow of Gaston and the southern end of Invest 98L, and another small upper low SE of the Invest ... I should also add, outflow on the Southern, and SE side is more restricted and if appears some easterly winds aloft are approaching Frances from the SE ...

Stormsfury, based on all of the above, is it starting to look to you like Frances might not maintain intense hurricane status as landfall nears or not?

[Floridacaner]

To Derek Ortt and Stormcenter,

Nice posts, couldn't have said it better myself.

[HollynLA]

I don't think it's safe to tell anyone along the east coast or in the GOM that they're "in the clear" or that they have "nothing to worry about". This storm is very tricky to forecast, so everyone should watch it closely because it's not going to pretty once it does make landfall. To constantly insist that it is going to "YOUR" area is obviously -removed-. This is going to be a very interesting week to say the least.

[HollynLA]

I don't think it's safe to tell anyone along the east coast or in the GOM that they're "in the clear" or that they have "nothing to worry about". This storm is very tricky to forecast, so everyone should watch it closely because it's not going to pretty once it does make landfall. To constantly insist that it is going to "YOUR" area is obviously -removed-. This is going to be a very interesting week to say the least.

[indwind]

I was living on Homestead Airforce Base in 1965. We prepared TWICE
for Hurricane Betsy. When it turned to the N we got the All Clear.

Then very shortly after we got the Get Ready again.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I like reading evryones BOLD predictions as to where a storm that is still 1,500 plus miles away from the US coast is or is not going to make landfall. I'm here to tell you that NOTHING is said and done with this storm. If you think that then man you must have a direct line to the man above and I don't mean the head of the NHC either.

It's not MY prediction...I was only trying to ease some floridians a slight bit!

[Brent]

I don't think it's safe to tell anyone along the east coast or in the GOM that they're "in the clear" or that they have "nothing to worry about". This storm is very tricky to forecast, so everyone should watch it closely because it's not going to pretty once it does make landfall. To constantly insist that it is going to "YOUR" area is obviously -removed-. This is going to be a very interesting week to say the least.

Strongly agree. Even though I am still leaning towards Florida, there's always the possibility it could go farther north.

[chris_fit]

Recon leaving in an hour or so for Frances??? Should be interesting!!

How long will it take them to get there?

[senorpepr]

It should be that long of a trip. After their mission from Gaston they headed to Puerto Rico for their layover.

[btsgmdad]

Looking forward to seeing what they find.

[dhweather]

Ditto

[lilbump3000]

Looking at the visible loop right now i dont think they will find a Cat. 4 hurricane. I might be wrong but it just doesnt look like a Cat. 4 storm. Maybe a Cat. 3 or strong Cat. 2

[Burn1]

Close call, but no hit at all for EC....Models keep Bending.....Trough will
be prevelant day 5.......Now putting money for it to go out to sea

[abajan]

Crow anyone?

Oh and uhh...leave a little for me.
LOL

[Rainband]

Good News Hope that verifies

[NorthGaWeather]

Do you like BBQ crow?