12Z GFS coming in...

[Wthrman13]

and it stalls Frances in the western Bahamas for 2 days or so through 156 hours, then begins to move it SLOWLY to the NW and still has it off the coast of FL (but very close) at 168 hours. This is much slower than previous runs and doesn't look like it would take it into the Gulf this time (but > 174 hours has yet to come out). Of course, by this time, we're getting to the limit of reasonable predictability anyway.

[Harbormaster]

Can you post a link for this yet? Where are you seeing the 12z GFS now?

Thx

[MWatkins]

Looks like it wants to develop a fairly significant trough and drop it down near the great lakes in 168 hours...which is somewhat similar to the CMC solution.

Full model wrap-up later on...

MW

[Wthrman13]

Also, the 12Z NOGAPS is out, shows a track very similar to the GFDL as far as a more NW motion later in the forecast period. Also as I type this, the GFS now shows a landfall on the GA/SC border at 204 hours.

[Thunder44]

GFS typical flip-flop in the long-range.

[PurdueWx80]

Goes in near Savannah. GFS also strengthens the storm as it parallels the coast of FL, but after 180 hours the resolution of the model is reduced, so it appears to weaken (pay no attention to actual depth of low).

[MWatkins]

Also...12Z NOGAPS is out...the model has shifted somewhat to the west and south from the previous run and now has Frances just a smidge to the NE of Nassau in 144 hours...which makes the total shift about 450 nautical miles from yesterdays 12Z run.

MW

[Weatherboy1]

The 12 UTC models coming in are certainly better news for those of us in South FL, but not so good for those further up the coast. It is still too early to say with certainty, but this is looking more and more like a Floyd situation not an Andrew (in terms of forecast path, that is ... no way to know whether intensity wise, we'll be in that much trouble).

[Anonymous]

If this New GFS flop is correct, would Florida be spared or would the entire east coast of Fla get raked as it parrallelled???

[Rainband]

Good news for florida if this verifies

[lilbump3000]

This is just one GFS run forecasting this. I will wait to see more runs to see if this is going to be a trend.

[x-y-no]

I wouldn't mind seeing it happen (sorry, folks in points north) but I'm not getting excited about anything past 3 days until the runs with recon data start coming in tomorrow.

[btangy]

The question is, is the slower movement of the GFS reasonable? A stall over the Bahamas would certainly allow the shortwave to pick up Frances eventually, that is, if the shortwave exists.

[Stormcenter]

Also...12Z NOGAPS is out...the model has shifted somewhat to the west and south from the previous run and now has Frances just a smidge to the NE of Nassau in 144 hours...which makes the total shift about 450 nautical miles from yesterdays 12Z run.

MW

Am I reading that correctly, to the west and south?
If so I have a feeling the models will continue to do
the fllipping and the flopping throughout the whole week
until this thing is around the Bahamas.

[Wthrman13]

The problem with stalls like this is in weak steering flow situations is that the model solution becomes extremely sensitive to slight perturbations in the flow, which can lead to wildly different solutions. It's sort of like a ball at the top of a hill. If you nudge it ever so slightly in one direction, it will start rolling down the hill in one direction. Nudge it in another, and it goes that way. However, this stall is forecasted 5-6 days out, so there is much uncertainty even as far as that goes.

[B-Bear]

Also...12Z NOGAPS is out...the model has shifted somewhat to the west and south from the previous run and now has Frances just a smidge to the NE of Nassau in 144 hours...which makes the total shift about 450 nautical miles from yesterdays 12Z run.

MW

Am I reading that correctly, to the west and south?
If so I have a feeling the models will continue to do
the fllipping and the flopping throughout the whole week
until this thing is around the Bahamas.

Yep. Looks like John Kerry is posting the model runs, doesn't it?

[MWatkins]

Also...12Z NOGAPS is out...the model has shifted somewhat to the west and south from the previous run and now has Frances just a smidge to the NE of Nassau in 144 hours...which makes the total shift about 450 nautical miles from yesterdays 12Z run.

MW

Am I reading that correctly, to the west and south?
If so I have a feeling the models will continue to do
the fllipping and the flopping throughout the whole week
until this thing is around the Bahamas.

They will continue to flip and flop. The NOGAPS wanted to take this up the 70W line yesterday...now it's closer to 77.5.

We are looking out WAY into the area where the models have an extreeme amount of variance from run to run. However...we may see better agreement after the synoptic mission comcludes and tonight's models come out.

MW

[SouthernWx]

The question is, is the slower movement of the GFS reasonable? A stall over the Bahamas would certainly allow the shortwave to pick up Frances eventually, that is, if the shortwave exists.

That's true...but I just don't see this hurricane stalling...especially if it becomes as large & intense as I'm expecting once nears the Bahamas.

The GFS 12z run is so much different than previous runs, I have to admit I'm quite skeptical until a trend becomes established (from landfall near Pensacola to Savannah in one run)....especially since the latest ECMWF slams Frances inland near West Palm Beach.

Forecaster Avila mentioned the GFDL in the 11 a.m. discussion....but I don't have a lot of faith in the GFDL at this range.....the ECMWF has proven to be far more reliable forecasting mature hurricanes in the 5-7 day time frame the past several years.

[Derecho]

The amusing thing is that it has the wave currently exiting AFrica (which is quite well organized) following the exact same path, and a third system behind that one, in 16 days.

[LCfromFL]

The amusing thing is that it has the wave currently exiting AFrica (which is quite well organized) following the exact same path, and a third system behind that one, in 16 days.

Hmmmm...and weren't folks lamenting a slow season a while ago??