Latest Model Plots.....

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ericinmia
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Latest Model Plots.....

#1 Postby ericinmia » Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:59 am

Image

-Eric
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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#2 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:00 am

i'll go with UKMET...........
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Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:03 am

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:i'll go with UKMET...........
That would be a disaster for florida :(
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:03 am

Same ole . Same ole. Models very consistant.
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#5 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:04 am

Rainband wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:i'll go with UKMET...........
That would be a disaster for florida :(


Sorry rainband.... :cry:
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:06 am

NHC-A98E??? I know its track record is near 0 :( but seems safest and more of a chance of recurvature
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#7 Postby golter » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:06 am

UKMET is old
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#8 Postby Rainband » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:07 am

charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:
Rainband wrote:
charleston_hugo_veteran wrote:i'll go with UKMET...........
That would be a disaster for florida :(


Sorry rainband.... :cry:
Any place a major cane goes is a disaster :( , you have nothing to be sorry for. :wink: Lets hope it weakens or goes out to sea.
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#9 Postby LCfromFL » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:11 am

I don't believe the UKMET has been doing a very good job with Frances so far - it's interesting that the GFDL is so far right of the others. I think they keep the A98 around just for giggles - so if some other model starts mimicing that one, they'll know they are nutso :wink:
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#10 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:15 am

Jekyhe32210 wrote:NHC-A98E??? I know its track record is near 0 :( but seems safest and more of a chance of recurvature


Actually, it seems to indicate a threat north of Florida, not a recurvature out to sea. It did show a better chance of missing the U.S. a couple of days ago.
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#11 Postby snowflake » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:23 am

Dr. Steve Lyons on The Weather Channel said that one possibility is for it head towards the Carolinas. I forgot what the other possibility was.
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#12 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:42 am

The UKMET did not initialize with the latest storm turn to the left because it is an old run. The actual storm track continues to be left of the models so we may have to wait a few more runs before they decide to point the track over the GOM. The islanders will have to keep checking since Frances is stair stepping WNW, but not gaining near as much latitude as she was.
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Re: Latest Model Plots.....

#13 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:50 am

Frances verification now through 6Z Aug 29:

1. LBAR (still!)
2. NHC (catching up)

UKMET: 9th place ranking.

Overall (12 hrs-96 hrs) the NHC/TPC error is 64 miles (not bad)
The UKMET (12 hrs-96hrs) overall error is 143 miles.

Why is anyone NOT sticking to TPC????

Scott
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#14 Postby Suncat » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:02 pm

What is interesting is the trend of the majority of the models for a turn to the north. Still, all areas from south Florida north along the southeast coast should be prepared for this 'cane.
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#15 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 29, 2004 12:18 pm

64 miles can make all the difference in the world with a track close to the islands. Since Frances is trending left early the models and hence the forecast continues to lag to the right. This is a critical period as Frances changes direction and if the islanders are relying on old outdated information they may not be making the right preparations.
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