GFDL Comment and Model Summary

[shortwave]

Look...I fugured somebody would jump on the GFDL comment and calculate that the hurricane is coming for them and not south Florida. Just always seems to work that way. Let me write the sentance a little differently and say the exact ame thing:

If the GFDL model verifies that would lessen the threat to SFL.

There are only 2 problems with that statement.

1. There is NOTHING NEW about that. The GFDL has been suggesting a rightward shift for the last 150 runs in a row.

2. The GFDL sees the same weakness in the 500MB ridge late in the period that also caused the GFS model to hesitate before coming in. The 6Z does not create this subtle weakness and the storm moves in to SFL closer to the previous 12Z/18Z timetable from yesterday.

Anyone counting on a small weakness left behing by gaston should consider the Dolphins the early favorite to win the super bowl.

Look...the 12Z guidance comes out in another 3 to 4 hours. If the GFS does the same thing as it did in the 6Z run...then the NW turn of the GFDl will be less dramatic.

Also...dont forget we have the synoptic missions flying tonight which should impact the track guidance some.

Relax...this can be stressful...nobody from Key West to Cape Hattaras had their threat go up at 11AM. Remember...Avila was the forecaster who thought this storm was turning out to sea 5 days ago.

MW

Sorry mike but the Bills from years past would have been the better metaphorical comparison... four years of that can break anyones confidence. haha
anyhows which model runs do they expect to have the sampling data from later tonight? Looks like a most probable reenforcement of what they already know.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Anyone counting on a small weakness left behing by gaston should consider the Dolphins the early favorite to win the super bowl.

MW

For anybody that doesn't keep up....

Without Ricky, the Dolphins suck
That small weakness is gonna be toast.

[Stratosphere747]

THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

This is Avila's last sentence in his discussion. What I am trying to get at is he seems to have a pattern in inputing something that throws off the whole forecast...Do the majority here take the whole discussion in and understand it...Yes....But lets take Mrs.J Doe who gets up in the morning and reads in the paper about this Frances thing heading towards the US...Somehow she gets to the NHC site and reads this discussion, what stays in her mind?? THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

She goes pfft and decides not to give it a second thought..The saving grace here is the fact that we are still 5-7 days out of any effect on her so there is time to have Mrs.Doe come around...