Path of least regret

[PTPatrick]

Does it strike anybody as funny that the NHC went so far as to mention that the GFDL model was better for SFL without mentioning that the fact most other models point straight at it, as well as the obvious issue that this westward motion does not bode well. I cant help but feel they are in the mode of, lets not let people know the full threat until we know for sure. I also find it funny the the track on 4 and 5 day conveniently misses all the bahamas. Could this be so that they dont alarm people in then have it turn north? It just seems to me that they wont let those 4 and 5 day spots go over any land until they absolutely have to. Not criticizing them...just think that it is interesting. I probably wouldnt want to point the barrel right at South Florida just yet either...they dont want to cry wolf and that is respectable.

[Hyperstorm]

It's basically a trick statement and there is a meaning behind it. It simply means that aside the GFDL (and NOGAPS for that matter), models do show a MAJOR threat to southern Florida...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Does it strike anybody as funny that the NHC went so far as to mention that the GFDL model was better for SFL without mentioning that the fact most other models point straight at it, as well as the obvious issue that this westward motion does not bode well. I cant help but feel they are in the mode of, lets not let people know the full threat until we know for sure. I also find it funny the the track on 4 and 5 day conveniently misses all the bahamas. Could this be so that they dont alarm people in then have it turnb north? It just seems to me that they wont let those 4 and 5 day spots go over any land until they absolutely have to.

That sounds a bit conspiratorial to me. I think their forecast track is just to the right of the GFS, UKMET, Euorpean and Canadian in deference to the GFDL which is considerably right. The forecast track still shows a direct Ft. Lauderdale hit if extrapolated.

[Derecho]

The GFDL is mentioned because the actual forecast track is actually basically pointing at Southern Florida...to remind people that's not set in stone.

People need to get over the idea that each word in each discussion is carefully chosen by a big committee over 6 hours of debate, and has some sort of deep, hidden meaning.

The discussions are written fairly quickly by one person over perhaps 1-2 hours.

And the 5 day position is offshore because the average of the consensus of the good models is still offshore then.

[Aquawind]

The GFDL is mentioned because the actual forecast track is actually basically pointing at Southern Florida...to remind people that's not set in stone.

People need to get over the idea that each word in each discussion is carefully chosen by a big committee over 6 hours of debate, and has some sort of deep, hidden meaning.

The discussions are written fairly quickly by one person over perhaps 1-2 hours.

And the 5 day position is offshore because the average of the consensus of the good models is still offshore then.

LOL..Yep..sometimes to quickly as in last nights 11pm..out at 10:30 and very very brief.

[x-y-no]

I don't read anything into it other than that he wants to emphasize the uncertainty of longer range forecasts.

I wish I could have any confidence in the GFDL at that range, but it has been consistently biased right after two or three days for the entire history of this storm.

[PTPatrick]

point taken...like I said, I wasnt criticizing. I didnt realize that if the track was extrapolated it point at ft. Lauderdale. I was not trying to emply any conspiracy, and certainly dont hang on every word of the discussion. Seems like some folks are around here getting a little testy. Is it too late to delete this post I dont want my post to be a part of another pissing contest...there have been enough of those the past couple of days.

[HURAKAN]

And I'm asking you, what would the NHC pinpoint tomorrow or Tuesday as the landfall point in the USA?

[mobilebay]

Does it strike anybody as funny that the NHC went so far as to mention that the GFDL model was better for SFL without mentioning that the fact most other models point straight at it, as well as the obvious issue that this westward motion does not bode well. I cant help but feel they are in the mode of, lets not let people know the full threat until we know for sure. I also find it funny the the track on 4 and 5 day conveniently misses all the bahamas. Could this be so that they dont alarm people in then have it turn north? It just seems to me that they wont let those 4 and 5 day spots go over any land until they absolutely have to. Not criticizing them...just think that it is interesting. I probably wouldnt want to point the barrel right at South Florida just yet either...they dont want to cry wolf and that is respectable.

After getting bashed from the Charley Forecast do you blame them. People in south Florida please get ready to prepare for this hurricane. Don't assume it's going to hook before it gets there. Remember... he GFS has been dead on with this cane.