GFDL Comment and Model Summary

[MWatkins]

Look...I fugured somebody would jump on the GFDL comment and calculate that the hurricane is coming for them and not south Florida. Just always seems to work that way. Let me write the sentance a little differently and say the exact ame thing:

If the GFDL model verifies that would lessen the threat to SFL.

There are only 2 problems with that statement.

1. There is NOTHING NEW about that. The GFDL has been suggesting a rightward shift for the last 150 runs in a row.

2. The GFDL sees the same weakness in the 500MB ridge late in the period that also caused the GFS model to hesitate before coming in. The 6Z does not create this subtle weakness and the storm moves in to SFL closer to the previous 12Z/18Z timetable from yesterday.

Anyone counting on a small weakness left behing by gaston should consider the Dolphins the early favorite to win the super bowl.

Look...the 12Z guidance comes out in another 3 to 4 hours. If the GFS does the same thing as it did in the 6Z run...then the NW turn of the GFDl will be less dramatic.

Also...dont forget we have the synoptic missions flying tonight which should impact the track guidance some.

Relax...this can be stressful...nobody from Key West to Cape Hattaras had their threat go up at 11AM. Remember...Avila was the forecaster who thought this storm was turning out to sea 5 days ago.

MW

[Brent]

Rough week ahead...

MWatkins, are you a meterologist?

[HURAKAN]

Anyone counting on a small weakness left behing by gaston should consider the Dolphins the early favorite to win the super bowl.
MW

And the Marlins winning the World Series this year.

[Brent]

LOL

[jlauderdal]

Anyone counting on a small weakness left behing by gaston should consider the Dolphins the early favorite to win the super bowl.
MW

And the Marlins winning the World Series this year.

this is shaqs town now and he is going to be one angry man if his new spread on star island is trashed by some french person named frances

[kittcat]

MW - I mentioned the GFDL but I live in Palm Beach and I want this to go AWAY. AWAY, I SAY!!. I'm looking for anything to give me hope that this is not coming here. That sentence did. I just wanted someone to agree and say....You're right....The monster is going to go north.

[x-y-no]

Anyone counting on a small weakness left behing by gaston should consider the Dolphins the early favorite to win the super bowl.

Ouch! LOL!

[Stratosphere747]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

[MWatkins]

Rough week ahead...

MWatkins, are you a meterologist?

I suppose it depends on what your definition is.

Here's Websters:
me·te·or·ol·o·gist ( P ) Pronunciation Key (mt--rl-jst)
n.
1. One who studies meteorology.
2. One who reports and forecasts weather conditions.

Clearly I do both these things. I think your question is actually a different one...which is do I have a degree in meteorology.

No...I do not. I attended the U of Oklahoma and studied meteorology but had to abandon that plan about 40 credit hours short of a degree.

For some reason the only time this question comes up is when there is a hurricane coming. But I do get asked if I have a degree all the time.

MW

[Aquawind]

Thanks Mike...Axiously waiting till tomorrows models/forecasts come out..

[scogor]

Mike, the heck with the degree in meteorology--your line about the dolphins (could have inserted my favorite team, the browns) and the super bowl will become legendary on this board. If you choose to quit your day job, there may be a future for you as a stand-up comic or sportscaster (and nowadays aren't they almost one and the same)?

[x-y-no]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

He mentions the GFS...UK...CANADIAN and the ECMWF in the previous sentence. So it really doesn't seem to me he was selecting the GFDL for special emphasis - just pointing out the it disagrees with the others and if that verifies it would be better for SFL.

[Brent]

Rough week ahead...

MWatkins, are you a meterologist?

I suppose it depends on what your definition is.

Here's Websters:
me·te·or·ol·o·gist ( P ) Pronunciation Key (mt--rl-jst)
n.
1. One who studies meteorology.
2. One who reports and forecasts weather conditions.

Clearly I do both these things. I think your question is actually a different one...which is do I have a degree in meteorology.

No...I do not. I attended the U of Oklahoma and studied meteorology but had to abandon that plan about 40 credit hours short of a degree.

For some reason the only time this question comes up is when there is a hurricane coming. But I do get asked if I have a degree all the time.

MW

Well I do #1, LOL

That was my question though, whether you were a professional met or not.

[Three Blind Mice]

and MW stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night!!


Sorry Mike I just couldn't resist.....

[ColinD]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

He mentions the GFS...UK...CANADIAN and the ECMWF in the previous sentence. So it really doesn't seem to me he was selecting the GFDL for special emphasis - just pointing out the it disagrees with the others and if that verifies it would be better for SFL.

Agreed. Repeat:::

"IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

------------------

His english was vague. Should have been written ...

"THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

[jlauderdal]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

He mentions the GFS...UK...CANADIAN and the ECMWF in the previous sentence. So it really doesn't seem to me he was selecting the GFDL for special emphasis - just pointing out the it disagrees with the others and if that verifies it would be better for SFL.

Agreed. Repeat:::

"IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

------------------

His english was vague. Should have been written ...

"THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

Nice to see in addition to all the PHD's in meterology here we also have an english professor..lol. I agree with your your rewrite.

[B-Bear]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

He mentions the GFS...UK...CANADIAN and the ECMWF in the previous sentence. So it really doesn't seem to me he was selecting the GFDL for special emphasis - just pointing out the it disagrees with the others and if that verifies it would be better for SFL.

Agreed. Repeat:::

"IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

------------------

His english was vague. Should have been written ...

"THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

And he should have perhaps added, "But it is important to note that the GFDL track diverges from the others, which are all in close agreement."

[ColinD]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

He mentions the GFS...UK...CANADIAN and the ECMWF in the previous sentence. So it really doesn't seem to me he was selecting the GFDL for special emphasis - just pointing out the it disagrees with the others and if that verifies it would be better for SFL.

Agreed. Repeat:::

"IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

------------------

His english was vague. Should have been written ...

"THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

Nice to see in addition to all the PHD's in meterology here we also have an english professor..lol. I agree with your your rewrite.

Haha. Degree is in physics actually

But obviously what is causing confusion is the pronoun "this".

[jlauderdal]

Why does it seem like Avila throws that one personal line in there like that?? It almost always takes the focus off the whole write up...He starts off with a good forecast and then ends it with that...I can see Stewert right now slapping him around....

He mentions the GFS...UK...CANADIAN and the ECMWF in the previous sentence. So it really doesn't seem to me he was selecting the GFDL for special emphasis - just pointing out the it disagrees with the others and if that verifies it would be better for SFL.

Agreed. Repeat:::

"IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

------------------

His english was vague. Should have been written ...

"THE GFDL MODEL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL MODEL TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS."

And he should have perhaps added, "But it is important to note that the GFDL track diverges from the others, which are all in close agreement."

exactly, if he wants to start doing model anlysis thats great but lets hear about the others too. He probably doesnt have his hurricane supplies and figures if he can stall mass panic until his shift his over he wont have to stand in line. can you imagin if he said well the canadian, uk and gfs all have a direct hit on miami. he would be telling the truth.

[ericinmia]

hahhaha i love that...