Ding-Ding-Ding! TPC steers to EC Off-Ramp

[snowflake]

The weatherman in Baton Rouge, Louisiana said that they expect the high pressure to the north to weaken. He also said that Gaston would not move to fast. Some people are also talking about a trough mid to late week and a weakness.

[soonertwister]

What's causing the more northerly trend of the models? Are they expecting the ridge to develop more slowly, or a weakness at the west?

I'm a little concerned right now that the 5-day is showing the hurricane track east of the Bahamas, well away from Florida, especially since right now the storm seems to be moving almost due west.

I would tend to be a little reluctant to steer that way with the projected path, just because of anywhere in the Conus, the earliest place that could get hit is Florida, and I rather have them more on their toes there, rather than just looking at a chart and thinking Frances is going elsewhere.

People see that track and they just put off the early preparations that they could be doing in the next 2-3 days. If Frances does go south of track, the last couple of days before landfall will be hectic enough, and I think that's probably a serious understatement.

[Scott_inVA]

What's causing the more northerly trend of the models? Are they expecting the ridge to develop more slowly, or a weakness at the west?

I'm a little concerned right now that the 5-day is showing the hurricane track east of the Bahamas, well away from Florida, especially since right now the storm seems to be moving almost due west.

I would tend to be a little reluctant to steer that way with the projected path, just because of anywhere in the Conus, the earliest place that could get hit is Florida, and I rather have them more on their toes there, rather than just looking at a chart and thinking Frances is going elsewhere.

People see that track and they just put off the early preparations that they could be doing in the next 2-3 days. If Frances does go south of track, the last couple of days before landfall will be hectic enough, and I think that's probably a serious understatement.

Oversimplified. Tropical models are mostly wretched with downstream CONUS features...they look synoptically at tropical weather.

Jumpiness in globals is (IMO) due to the trof progged to come down from Canada. Timing is everything. One assumes the trof digs and an attendant short wave kicks up along the trof; that could (sorta) deflect Frances more to the north. There certainly is a chance this is a SFLA/GOMer, but I don't think that's what will happen.

Scott

[TampaFl]

Who is LC???

[soonertwister]

Who is LC???

I'm guessing that LC is Larry Cosgrove of WXAmerica. I'm not familiar with him, but he's been mentioned in other recent threads.