Check out the WSW jog on the IR loop

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ColinD
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Check out the WSW jog on the IR loop

#1 Postby ColinD » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:02 am

Check out the southwesterly jog on the IR loop for the past 1.5 hours. (from 9:15-10:45 UTC)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby ga_ben » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:09 am

Definitely jogging a little south of west, lets see if this is a trend or a wobble.
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ga_ben
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Stupid question here

#3 Postby ga_ben » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:13 am

Can you destroy a cane w/ a nuke? I know there would be ramifications, but seems as if I read an article about this possibility. Frances seems a good candidate 8-)
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#4 Postby Benlanka » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:15 am

No. Here's a nice explanation from AOML:

During each hurricane season, there always appear suggestions that one should simply use nuclear weapons to try and destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.

Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x1013 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 1013 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.

If we think about mechanical energy, the energy at humanity's disposal is closer to the storm's, but the task of focusing even half of the energy on a spot in the middle of a remote ocean would still be formidable. Brute force interference with hurricanes doesn't seem promising.

In addition, an explosive, even a nuclear explosive, produces a shock wave, or pulse of high pressure, that propagates away from the site of the explosion somewhat faster than the speed of sound. Such an event doesn't raise the barometric pressure after the shock has passed because barometric pressure in the atmosphere reflects the weight of the air above the ground. For normal atmospheric pressure, there are about ten metric tons (1000 kilograms per ton) of air bearing down on each square meter of surface. In the strongest hurricanes there are nine. To change a Category 5 hurricane into a Category 2 hurricane you would have to add about a half ton of air for each square meter inside the eye, or a total of a bit more than half a billion (500,000,000) tons for a 20 km radius eye. It's difficult to envision a practical way of moving that much air around.

Attacking weak tropical waves or depressions before they have a chance to grow into hurricanes isn't promising either. About 80 of these disturbances form every year in the Atlantic basin, but only about 5 become hurricanes in a typical year. There is no way to tell in advance which ones will develop. If the energy released in a tropical disturbance were only 10% of that released in a hurricane, it's still a lot of power, so that the hurricane police would need to dim the whole world's lights many times a year.
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Re: Stupid question here

#5 Postby TS Zack » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:15 am

then you take the risk it backfires and you have a radioactive Hurricane. Winds 500mph Presssure 530MB
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#6 Postby ga_ben » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:26 am

Thanks for the info Benlanka. Back to the drawing board. Maybe we could call the super friends over at the Hall of Justice. This situation is
just not lookin good.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:30 am

Yes I see that WSW jog but it is a wobble however every stairstep like that is very important for the northern islands now.
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:36 am

cycloneye wrote:Yes I see that WSW jog but it is a wobble however every stairstep like that is very important for the northern islands now.


Yeah it seems like those wobbles can add up..Whats the feeling this morning in PR?
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 29, 2004 6:38 am

Aquawind wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Yes I see that WSW jog but it is a wobble however every stairstep like that is very important for the northern islands now.


Yeah it seems like those wobbles can add up..Whats the feeling this morning in PR?


Not panic here although the TV mets are talking about the track and the fringe effects passing les than 200 miles.But nothing yet about the supermarkets jamed and people boardering up.
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#10 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:17 am

The islands better watch it. :eek:
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