The Long Range General Consensus (Tonight) Shifts...

[Sean in New Orleans]

...a little off S. Florida, but, it's way too early to count this out, for sure. The long range percentages are highest for a SE US hit from Cocoa Beach north to Charleston, SC. I'm still not going to say the system won't make it to the Gulf. However, I'm only posting the general feelings of one meterologist tonight in New Orleans on the news and, of course, he is going with the NHC. But, I'm tending to agree with this synopsis. Keep in mind, we could all feel differently by Monday. This system is just too far out, IMO. The hunches are just beginning and I'm going with Georgia or South Carolina tonight. But, again, what do we REALLY know with the system this far out to sea.

[Tertius]

I keep hearing anecdotes about local mets saying this will hit further north up the coast (than Florida) and yet every major model run I've seen over the last few hours are coming into even more agreement on a South Florida event.

What gives?

[Stormcenter]

...a little off S. Florida, but, it's way too early to count this out, for sure. The long range percentages are highest for a SE US hit from Cocoa Beach north to Charleston, SC. I'm still not going to say the system won't make it to the Gulf. However, I'm only posting the general feelings of one meterologist tonight in New Orleans on the news and, of course, he is going with the NHC. But, I'm tending to agree with this synopsis. Keep in mind, we could all feel differently by Monday. This system is just too far out, IMO. The hunches are just beginning and I'm going with Georgia or South Carolina tonight. But, again, what do we REALLY know with the system this far out to sea.

Based on what? What long range percentages are you referring to? Frances is over 1800 mile from US mainland and
there is NO way you can say any place is either in or out of the woods.

[Harbormaster]

This whole season has been completely bizzare and the historical tracks of most the more important storms so far have been way off from the actual tracks that they have taken. Anything is possible this year it seems!

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's a strong hunch, Stormcenter, and following patterns with my naked eye...I'm not one to glue myself to models...although, they are good assets to utilize in a broad spectrum of tools in attempting to predict Mother Nature.

[Harbormaster]

There is too much going on in the Atlantic Basin to make this an easy forecast. The models are late in picking up on the other features out there. We will have to wait to see how they respond, and obviously we will have to wait to see what the main players other than Frances contribute to the whole equation. This is a truly unique situation and it will be very interesting to see how the models compare to real life tomorrow, the next day, the next, etc.!

[wjs3]

Sean:

I'm with stormcenter....based on what?--a Hunch isn't good enough for me.

Telling people on the east coast not to worry right now is nuts.

[Stormcenter]

It's a strong hunch, Stormcenter, and following patterns with my naked eye...I'm not one to glue myself to models...although, they are good assets to utilize in a broad spectrum of tools in attempting to predict Mother Nature.

Hey whatever works for you. Though I hope you don't based that "hunch" on your decision to leave or stay if a hurricane were to threaten your area.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I know how to make the proper decisions and when to make them when it comes to hurricanes. Thanks for the concern. Both sides of my family has lived in the New Orleans area for 5 generations. I will say, that Channel 4's John Gumm said tonight that it appears that the storm will more likely enter the Gulf and head to the Central Gulf of Mexico via S. Florida hit (like Andrew) than go turn more NW. He said this scenarion appears more likely tonight than earlier.

[Anonymous]

[quote="Stormcenter
Based on what? What long range percentages are you referring to? Frances is over 1800 mile from US mainland and
there is NO way you can say any place is either in or out of the woods.[/quote]

..well for one run the latest (08/28/04 PM) MCEP model analyses & forecast which are pretty good on Highs & frontal Lows, and has maintained a consist (fairly good) track for Frances over the past 3 days. Bringing her through South Florida/Keys with a turn to the N/NW near Naples to a 2nd landfall around MS/AL.

Now I realize this will change as the margin of error is great- the model run is consist with a south Florida hit, coming then hitting again somewhere betweeen LA & the Panhandle (Pensacola). By Monday this may be Jacksonville to Charleston.
However, you simply cannot deny that the NCEP runs have been stable and things look like they are falling into place if the Bermuda High builds.

Mike

[Tertius]

[quote="Stormcenter
Based on what? What long range percentages are you referring to? Frances is over 1800 mile from US mainland and
there is NO way you can say any place is either in or out of the woods.

..well for one run the latest (08/28/04 PM) MCEP model analyses & forecast which are pretty good on Highs & frontal Lows, and has maintained a consist (fairly good) track for Frances over the past 3 days. Bringing her through South Florida/Keys with a turn to the N/NW near Naples to a 2nd landfall around MS/AL.

Now I realize this will change as the margin of error is great- the model run is consist with a south Florida hit, coming then hitting again somewhere betweeen LA & the Panhandle (Pensacola). By Monday this may be Jacksonville to Charleston.
However, you simply cannot deny that the NCEP runs have been stable and things look like they are falling into place if the Bermuda High builds.

Mike[/quote]

I think you are missing his point. The original poster was stating that a landfall from South Carolina northward was more likely than a Florida one; Stormcenter was asking what he based that on. The MCEP model merely confirms that Stormcenter was correct to question that, since it also (in addition to many others) indicates a South Florida landfall at the moment.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm still going for this threat moving a little more to the N and E of the original projections. I'd be more concerned (today), if I was in Georgia and the Carolinas than S Florida. Again, this could still change, but, my comfort level for New Orleans being safe from this storm, in the long run, continues to rise. Hopefully, it'll stay this way!