00z canadian right over S FL

[Vortex]

Folks in S FL need to really begin prelimanary preparations for a dangerous hurricane as many of the models continue with consistency a direct hit over over the southern portion of florida...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... hour=120hr

[WeatherEmperor]

wow. this model, the CMC I believe it is, brings Frances right over south florida. looks scary indeed. This isnt one of the more trusted models but it cant be ruled out either.

<RICKY>

[jlauderdal]

wow. this model, the CMC I believe it is, brings Frances right over south florida. looks scary indeed. This isnt one of the more trusted models but it cant be ruled out either.

<RICKY>

nbc6 radar tower is in trouble

[Anonymous]

If the Canadian model is correct, the entire coast of fla is in trouble.... 144hrs...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... hour=144hr

[WeatherEmperor]

wow. this model, the CMC I believe it is, brings Frances right over south florida. looks scary indeed. This isnt one of the more trusted models but it cant be ruled out either.

<RICKY>

nbc6 radar tower is in trouble

LOL! You and I just keep messin with NBC6 dont we? I wonder what Roland is up to. Hmmmm.......

<RICKY>

[RevDodd]

Quick qestion: Went back and checked the 120 hour from the same run. It has Frances knocking on the door in S. Fla. At 144 she's chugging up the coast. Are they implying a ride up the coast, and if so, to where?

[jlauderdal]

wow. this model, the CMC I believe it is, brings Frances right over south florida. looks scary indeed. This isnt one of the more trusted models but it cant be ruled out either.

<RICKY>

nbc6 radar tower is in trouble

LOL! You and I just keep messin with NBC6 dont we? I wonder what Roland is up to. Hmmmm.......

<RICKY>

well my friend lives down the street from roland and roland was last seen oputting up shutters, packing the min-van and driving as fast he could out of the state of florida..nuff said

[ChaserUK]

well the models have been so consistent have they not - I have to say if I lived in Florida I too would be a tad nervous.

[Guest]

well the models have been so consistent have they not - I have to say if I lived in Florida I too would be a tad nervous.

yeah I have got to say that I have not seen such consistency like this in a while if ever with 5-6 days to go.

The GFS,UKMET,EURO & CMC all on the same page is rather ominous.Yet the NHC keeps trending North,thats the confusing part.

[TampaFl]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

For us on the Florida West coast, espeacially here in the Tampa Bay area, this is not a good track . People here are still talking how fortunate we were with Charley (not so fortunate for our neighbors down south), so could this be Tampa's "Big One"??? Only time will tell.

Robert

[LCfromFL]

If the Canadian model is correct, the entire coast of fla is in trouble.... 144hrs...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... hour=144hr

I'm now seeing a couple of models hinting at more of a turn to the north - this one, and even the NHC 5 day forecast is further north than the one yesterday. So will Frances try to pull a Floyd or Irene? Or will she just keep setting her targets further up the state? I see this turning into another Floyd evacuation nightmare. And I'm not even going to speculate on where she'll end up....but at a cat 4 (or even cat 5), she'll get many folks attention as she heads this way.

[spaceisland]

Floyd was particularly nasty because the final turn which took it away from Brevard County Florida happened soooo late... it was close enough that we were hit by TS force winds, but we were able to watch the clouds from the monster offshore. Because of the threat, we went to a shelter... what a mess! I would leave before I take my family to a shelter again!

[Weatherboy1]

As much as I'd like to believe Frances will be at 25N 75W in 5 days and already hooking toward the NW, that just doesn't seem logical to me. First, Frances hase been on a practical 270-280 heading the last several hours. This indicates the ridge has built in and is very strong. That seems to suggest a westerly shift in the forecast track. Second, the Euro used to be an outlier with the NOGAPS, forecasting a turn well to the east of Fl. It has shifted steadily closer for several runs now and is now showing a major cane plowing into (or being just offshore) of SE FL. THe GFS has been consistent about a move over or JUST S OF FL and even the outlier NOGAPS has shifted much farther W. Unfortunately, that suggests to me a greater South FL threat.

[jlauderdal]

As much as I'd like to believe Frances will be at 25N 75W in 5 days and already hooking toward the NW, that just doesn't seem logical to me. First, Frances hase been on a practical 270-280 heading the last several hours. This indicates the ridge has built in and is very strong. That seems to suggest a westerly shift in the forecast track. Second, the Euro used to be an outlier with the NOGAPS, forecasting a turn well to the east of Fl. It has shifted steadily closer for several runs now and is now showing a major cane plowing into (or being just offshore) of SE FL. THe GFS has been consistent about a move over or JUST S OF FL and even the outlier NOGAPS has shifted much farther W. Unfortunately, that suggests to me a greater South FL threat.

good analysis of the current model situation weatherboy.

[Matthew5]

I agree south Florida is in the track of Fances.