Herbert's Box & Lushine Line...

[frederic79]

Current projections take Frances through Hebert's Box 1 with 48 hours. According to the NWS records, almost every major hurricane that passed through this area since 1900 has struck Southeast Florida. (Hurricane Charley passed through Herbert's Box 2 in the Caribbean just 3 1/2 weeks ago.)

Frances should then pass through the "Lushine Line", due north of the Dominican Republic's east coast. Since 1851, 14 major hurricanes have struck South Florida, from Juniper to Homestead and the Naples area south. Of the 14, a dozen went through the line. It's interesting to note that 140 systems of at least tropical storm strength crossed the Lushine line, and only 12 have struck South Florida as a major hurricane. One other thing; all 12 of the hurricanes referred to here were bonified Cape Verde storms, as is Frances. According to Mr. Lushine, storms passing north of the line tend to recurve and become fish storms. Those passing south of the line either go into the Gulf missing Florida to the south or hit Cuba and Hispaniola, disrupting their circulation. The 2 storms that struck Florida but failed to cross the Lushine Line were late-season storms in 1910 and 1950 that sprang up in the Caribbean and struck from the south.

Interestingly too, Mr. Lushine believes there is a connection between dry Mays and hurricanes striking Florida. Since 1912, 16 hurricanes have affected southeast Florida. In 15 of those years, May rainfall was below normal. This past May was the 13th driest may on record. The driest May on record produced Besty; the second-driest May produced Andrew.

Mr. Lushine is retiring from the NWC in Miami this year after 42 years in the business. His quote "I hope it goes out with a whimper and not a bang."

-From a 2004 Palm Beach Post article.

[HeatherAKC]

You see! I mentioned the "dry May" phenomenon last night in another thread! The first time I recall hearing about it was from my Mother many years ago. I always thought it was just ole' Sofla lore! Seems there's a little more to it!

[cape_escape]

very interesting..thanks!

[KBBOCA]

Gulp... not sounding good for S. Florida AT ALL. Let's pray that Frances will swerve North of the Lushine line, (thus increasing chances she'll be a fish) shall we?!