HUGE PROBLEM WITH NHC

[B-Bear]

You know, not to sound insensitive, but if people are made aware that a major hurricane may possibly impact their area, although a definite storm track remains uncertain, and these people decide to hang out instead of getting the hell out of Dodge--well, then maybe it's a little Darwinism at work and it serves to weed out the shallow end of the gene pool.

[senorpepr]

I disagree. better to err on the side of caution than to give people LESS time to prepare. People need to be aware of what's out there and what the POSSIBILITIES are. Sure, it's 7 days away, but hey, "Here's what we're looking at now. Here's what it MIGHT look like 5 days from now." That empowers people to make their own decisions. Perhaps someone will listen, take heed, get their family out way ahead of time. And what if it just so happens the hurricane hits? That's one family that will live to see another day. Too much information is never a bad idea when it could cost lives.

The only problem with that is if they say, "Hey, 7 days from now we'll have a landfall at point A." Everyone will remember that. The next day, the guidance may change it and say it will be hit point B. Now you have a situation where the NHC is flip-flopping (although we *should* know that weather isn't an exact science) and the general public will get upset. Unfortunately there isn't a great deal of common sense in the general public. It's just like in the northern states when a forecaster says it will snow 4-8 inches. The general public hears only 8 inches and should it snow 3.5 inches (one heluva good forecast), the general public will be upset, calling it a bust forecast.

[cape_escape]

I have some mixed feelings about this -- but not very mixed. A government entity (and the NHC is one) has an obligation to level with the tax paying public.

We endure enough "nanny" government these days without being treated like dense children who can't handle such information.

I would have to lean toward letting the public know all the facts so they can make their own decisions about how to handle situations.

Can there really be "too much" information where life and property are concerned? I don't think so.

That said, I have no idea what the NHC is allegedly "holding back," so I wish someone would TELL US!

I'm with you Dixiebreeze, I want to know what it is too! Ditto to everything you said!

[Derek Ortt]

I am usually at the map discussions from hrd so even though I'd get the discussions there, it would not be the end of the world if I did not get everyone, especially since our forecasts are written well before the discussions are released

[JTD]

Dixiebreeze, too funny about protests. LOL.

Now, if Brian Norcross is interpeting huge football games with special reports for Frances in Miami already, NHC is not exactly keeping a secret here.

Dixie, NHC 5-day forecast shows this storm going souther than forecast for the next 48 hours and then follows GFDL which is further north than the storm is right now after 48. They just don't want to panic people. This is established fact now.

[Frank P]

A couple of points....
1) its still way the heck out there
2) its not going to affect the CONUS for several more days, if it does make a US landfall...(although models want to make it hit)
3) you have PLENTY of time to watch its progress.
4) trust me, this thing is NOT going to SNEAK up on anybody, at least anybody with a lick of common sense...
5) if you are not prepared for hurricanes living in a hurricane prone area shame on you... start tomorrow.... beat the havoc and lines, get what you need early, it will only help you in the long run
6) if this thing does end up coming your way, then you can panic, you'll be enitled to if its a strong 4 or 5, .... or better perhaps if
7) you're prepared and evacuate as required then at least you won't get killed, or at least its unlikely you'd get killed...
8) if you're in the projected eye wall of Frances, or for that fact anywhere near the eye wall (within 50 miles or so).... board and seal up everything on your house, every door, opening and window.... I've just redone my entire hurricane strapping system throughout my entire house... triple reduncany on every stud, joice and rafter...
9) chances are if you are in the eye wall of a Cat 5 storm you probably will not have much of a house to come back to, especially if you're within the immediate coastal areas of first impact.... at least without significant major damage... so get mentally prepared for this probability.... not a happy thought I know...
10) I've been through a Cat 5, so I know what to expect...
11) Nothing with Frances is in stone... so save your panic for when its really needed.... all this hype does not help anyone.... not right now anyway... save it for when it might really count... trust me, there will be plenty time to panic later...

[dixiebreeze]

Jason, the more southerly track is what I've been thinking all along today. I still think it could possibly skirt the S. tip of Florida and end up in the GOM.

[dhweather]

There will be civil unrest if the NHC says it's coming
too soon. People in south FL remember Andrew,
and they will flip out if the official verbiage says
"South Florida".

What sort of "civil unrest?" Protests?

People getting in a panicked state, fighting over food/water
on shelves in stores, long lines, a very stressful environment.

[Ground_Zero_92]

There will be civil unrest if the NHC says it's coming
too soon. People in south FL remember Andrew,
and they will flip out if the official verbiage says
"South Florida".

What sort of "civil unrest?" Protests?

Good question Dixie. I do not see mass panic. Everyone in a hurricane area should be prepared and have supplies purchased from the begining of hurricane season. I am topping off my supplies tomorrow. Beyond long lines and empty sheves, I don't see mass panic.

[dhweather]

You know, not to sound insensitive, but if people are made aware that a major hurricane may possibly impact their area, although a definite storm track remains uncertain, and these people decide to hang out instead of getting the hell out of Dodge--well, then maybe it's a little Darwinism at work and it serves to weed out the shallow end of the gene pool.

Natural selection my friend!

[dixiebreeze]

There will be civil unrest if the NHC says it's coming
too soon. People in south FL remember Andrew,
and they will flip out if the official verbiage says
"South Florida".

What sort of "civil unrest?" Protests?

People getting in a panicked state, fighting over food/water
on shelves in stores, long lines, a very stressful environment.

Sounds to me like a typical Friday afternoon of shopping at Publix.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I have some mixed feelings about this -- but not very mixed. A government entity (and the NHC is one) has an obligation to level with the tax paying public.

We endure enough "nanny" government these days without being treated like dense children who can't handle such information.

I would have to lean toward letting the public know all the facts so they can make their own decisions about how to handle situations.

Can there really be "too much" information where life and property are concerned? I don't think so.

That said, I have no idea what the NHC is allegedly "holding back," so I wish someone would TELL US!

I can't disagree with that. Just the facts ma'am. I don't expect them to be perfect, but to give me their professional opinion on what it'll do, and steps they would recommend that we take. That's what we pay them to do. Everything else I'll figure out on my own.

[JTD]

Also, Floyd forecasts changed several times during the media hype. No one panicked or went crazy.

Reasonable people know what to do when a cat 5 may even be heading their way.

[dixiebreeze]

I have some mixed feelings about this -- but not very mixed. A government entity (and the NHC is one) has an obligation to level with the tax paying public.

We endure enough "nanny" government these days without being treated like dense children who can't handle such information.

I would have to lean toward letting the public know all the facts so they can make their own decisions about how to handle situations.

Can there really be "too much" information where life and property are concerned? I don't think so.

That said, I have no idea what the NHC is allegedly "holding back," so I wish someone would TELL US!

I can't disagree with that. Just the facts ma'am. I don't expect them to be perfect, but to give me their professional opinion on what it'll do, and steps they would recommend that we take. That's what we pay them to do. Everything else I'll figure out on my own.

Exactly, Al Chili Pepper. Any thinking person knows the NHC is not God, that errors can be made. Government in general needs to give citizens more credit for intelligence, initiative and strength.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Sounds to me like a typical Friday afternoon of shopping at Publix.

Ain't that the truth. LOL!!!

[dhweather]

A lot of this goes back to the NHC and what they do and don't say,
then mix in the media outlets.

If they said Ft. Lauderdale for landfall right now, then cange to Havana
tomorrow, then key West the next day, they lose credibility in the
eyes of some of the public. These types of folks are the same ones that
will fight over bottled water at wal mart as the storm is actually
approaching. I've seen it with my own eyes, and the population here isn't
as dense at south FL.

[dixiebreeze]

"These types of folks are the same ones that
will fight over bottled water at wal mart as the storm is actually
approaching. I've seen it with my own eyes, and the population here isn't
as dense at south FL."

Anyone fighting over a bottle of water has waited too long anyway and might just as well hole up and hope for the best.

[Brent]

There will be civil unrest if the NHC says it's coming
too soon. People in south FL remember Andrew,
and they will flip out if the official verbiage says
"South Florida".

What sort of "civil unrest?" Protests?

People getting in a panicked state, fighting over food/water
on shelves in stores, long lines, a very stressful environment.

Sounds to me like a typical Friday afternoon of shopping at Publix.

[Derecho]

I am not one to flip out....but this is outrageous.

Just listening to Storm2k radio. NHC is holding back the verification numbers from the general public.

Um,

Thread has reached 2 pages and nobody has explained what the heck is meant by "verification numbers."

I mean, to me, that's simply the average error of various models and the NHC track. There's no formal NHC product with those, and never has been, and anybody in the public can calculate those fairly easily (I use a program.)

[Nancy]

I've noticed that the meteorologists in West Palm Beach have been more nonchalant about a possible direct hit from Frances than they were with our chances of getting tropical storm force winds from the fringes of Charley. I guess they don't want people to start evacuating until they can be more specific. I can only imagine the grid-lock if all of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties began evacuating at the same time.