Frances Advisories

[Storminole]

I recall wondering something similar about Cat 5 Hurricane Mitch in late October 1998. The storm had reached an astonishing intensity in the western Caribbean, with sustained winds of 180 mph and the lowest pressure since Gilbert 10 years earlier. And before that only Allen (1980), Camille (1969), and the 1935 Keys hurricane had ever had a lower pressure among Atlantic storms.

A the storm drifted very slowly, I assumed it would quickly weaken as it tapped out the warmth of the SST and stirred up cooler waters from the depths. Yet Mitch held its tornadic sustained winds at 180 mph for 24 hours while it barely moved.

In early summer, where the SST might be warm but cooler once you get down to any depth, I can see a storm being starved for heat energy if it doesn't keep moving. I believe that happened to a storm named Alberto off the coast of SW Florida in June 1982. It stalled in place and just fizzled within a day.

I still think Mitch is the most strikingly symetrical hurricane (in a visible sat. photo) that I've ever seen. There's no mistaking that this storm is one bad boy.

[/i]

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

no graphics, very near bahamas in 5

[Aquawind]

I am hoping for a weakness..buy have my doubts from what most have said since I mentioned it yesterday..and now with the latest 11pm discussions..show a slowing of Frances and is relected in the NHC forecast..also Gastion has been pushed out faster in the official forecast..

[ericinmia]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

Why is this happening; what supports this?

Is this SHIPS just still not properly initializing this storm?
-Eric

[DelrayMorris]

My dogs have ID chips implanted. One of the nice features of adopting a mutt from Animal Care and Control in Palm Beach County FL is that the chips are included with the adoption price.

They have their rabies tags and identification, but it makes me feel safer to know that if their collars come off for any reason, there would still be some way to have them reunited with us.

[OtherHD]

I think that's something SHIPS does with all intense hurricanes. Something about a hurricane not being able to hold such a high intensity for so long, so SHIPS automatically drops it off right away. Or something.

[KBBOCA]

This was explained in one of the NHC discussions today (11 a.m.? perhaps). Wish I could remember the details...

[caneman]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290229
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST
PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POSITIONS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 18.3N 53.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 54.5W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 58.6W 125 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.1N 61.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 66.3W 125 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 70.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT


$$

Also of note is now on the WNW track.

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290203
AFDSJU

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1000 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2004

LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW HAS SURFACE REFLECTION ALONG 67 WEST.
STLT IMAGERY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT NE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF FRANCES
HAS CAUSED SOME BUCKLING OF THIS WEAK TROUGH...PRODUCING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE AND UPSTREAM LLVL CONVERGENCE...WHICH HAS INDUCED
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NE CARIB.
THIS WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WNW OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR
DECENT DIURNAL COVERAGE ON SUNDAY.

FRANCES LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED JUST A BIT MORE PAST 8 HOURS...AND WE
ARE NOW ESTIMATED A MOTION OF 295 AT 7 KNOTS SINCE 18Z. SOME WARMING
OF CLOUDS TOPS HAS OCCURRED AND WILL LIKELY BE REFLECTED IN LOWERING
WINDS SPEEDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE AS THIS MAJOR HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO GO THROUGH
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL IN THE TRACK OF FRANCES AS IT BEGINS TO
BEND A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF
THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WOULD PUT THE ISLANDS OF THE EXTREME NE CARIB
AND THE BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNDER THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WIND FIELD PROJECTED BY NHC. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON
THIS PASSAGE OF FRANCES TO OUR NORTH...BUT WE MAY BE SKIRTED WITH
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE NE CARIB
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES.

LARGE SWELLS AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED
MONDAY ACROSS THE E AND SE COASTS OF ST THOMAS AND ST JOHN...AND
ACROSS THE E AND E COASTS OF ST CROIX...WITH SWELLS THEN BECOMING
MORE NNE AND AFFECTING THE LOCAL NORTH COASTS OF THE V.I. AND P.R.
ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE LOCAL OFF
SHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

[Typhoon_Willie]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290229
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES
TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST
PERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POSITIONS.

FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 18.3N 53.4W 115 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 18.8N 54.5W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 19.8N 58.6W 125 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 20.1N 61.1W 125 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 21.2N 66.3W 125 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 22.4N 70.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 24.0N 74.0W 125 KT

[caneman]

POsted already but note how she is coming in under th 20 and 60 line in 48 hours!. Also on the WNW track now. NHC and models have had a good handle on this so far.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm starting to be convinced that there is going to be some type of weakness there, which MAY spare s fla. However, that is conjecture and nobody in sfla should think that they are off the hook due to my late night speculation

[Brent]

Good discussion.

[Dean4Storms]

I go back to the models and if this turn continues the more westward track and threat to S. Florida becomes apparent. It looks to me that a S. Florida strike and maybe a cross over into the Eastern GOM with another landfall on the upper Gulf Coast is a good possibility at this point. The weakness north of Hispaniola looks to be forecasted to weaken entirely allowing the ridge that Frances is now getting turned by to ride in north of her all the way to Florida. The more NW turn that NHC is showing in there track late in the forecast period is just them trying to put an arrow between the southern model tracks and the northern model tracks. But like they have done since day one with this storm will be to come further westward as Frances rounds the western extent of that ridge now looking like that turn begins later which would cross her over southern Florida and into the GOM in my opinion.

[LaBreeze]

Interesting thoughts Dean4storms.

[Burn1]

Weakness in Ridge created by Gaston seems more and more likely for
Frances to make that all to familiar turn over Central Bahamas...Floyd?
SC/NC once again lookout.....I think S. Florida once again proves that this is not part of Hurricane Alley.....NC/SC, Panhandle of Fl and Gulf Coast are so much more susceptible. A busy pattern like the 40's and 50's was highly unusual.........We will not be getting Frances in S. FL

[SouthernWx]

My apologies for the late issuance of this forecast and discussion.
It was due to a severe t-storm in my area (several homes in this area were struck by lightning in the past two hours

Here is my evening discussion and forecast for hurricane Frances..

Latest Forecast:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

Latest Analysis:
http://community.webtv.net/vortex4000/P ... myThoughts

[Windtalker]

With Frances predicted to be a cat 4 or 5 storm, how long before landfall will the NHC issue Warnings to say "South Florida" to be able to move the Millions of People. They would need more than 36 Hrs to evacuate...Thanks

[Matthew5]

24 hours for a hurricane warning. 36 hours for a hurricane watch.

[logybogy]

Is it still 20 nautical miles across?