Latest Model Runs on a more south and west track

[logybogy]

I think for this thing to miss South Florida, people there should hope for the storm to go south through the straits and Cuba rather than hope for a north turn.

If this thing keeps on a southerly course and then starts turning North and NW, it could go right up and parallel the Florida coastline and that would be a horrific scenario.

[ericinmia]

It will be interesting to see what the NHC/TPC will do with the new model runs at their 11pm advisory.
-Eric

[Derek Ortt]

some models not on that transmission show a more northerly track. We are starting to see some divergence. The trickly part is to see how much of a weakness that Gaston leaves behind

[logybogy]

Gatson shouldn't be a factor at all. It'll be long gone when Frances gets close to Florida.

Also, can't Gatson amplify the ridge and make it even stronger when he moves out?

[LaBreeze]

If Gaston is slow enough and strong enough, wouldn't he cause some upwelling in the area if Frances comes along in the same area? Or would Gaston be long gone by the time Frances appears on the scene? Comments?

[PTPatrick]

that would be assuming that Franny will ever get near SC...which seems doubtful at this point. And even if she did, you are talking about Saturday next weekend, and Gaston will be inland tomorrow night, so even if upwelling occured, which I doubt much will, it would have a week to re-warm

[LaBreeze]

My thoughts were the same PTPatrick. It was just a thought because following Isidore two years ago, we also had Lili as a Cat. 4 heading right at us and at the last minute she cooled a bit due to some upwelling along the coast. It saved our behinds!

[dhweather]

LaBreeze, I remember that well.

Bad for us - the Gulf is ripe for a storm, plenty of warm water.

[Brent]

Doesn't look good for Florida...

[crabbyhermit]

My thoughts were the same PTPatrick. It was just a thought because following Isidore two years ago, we also had Lili as a Cat. 4 heading right at us and at the last minute she cooled a bit due to some upwelling along the coast. It saved our behinds!

Aw now, you know that was because of all those prayers to Our Lady of Prompt Succor, Louisiana's protectoress against the canes!

[LaBreeze]

Yes I do know. There were Cajun prayers flying left and right! She does intercede for us.

[lilbump3000]

Well im feeling more and more confident that this system will make it across south flordia and into the gulf of mexico. The W to WNW turn that they have been forecasting has started basicly 24 hours eariler than expected. By that happening whatever little weakness that might be on the east coast might not be strong enough to pick her up since she might be futher south than thought, Thus the high will continue to build in strong and force her into the gulf. So i say the people in south flordia and the people along the nothern gulf coast from central louisiana to moblie alabama look out.

[frankthetank]

so the fate of south florida is in the hands of Gaston--which is heading inland??? were going to need Brian Boitano....

[mobilebay]

some models not on that transmission show a more northerly track. We are starting to see some divergence. The trickly part is to see how much of a weakness that Gaston leaves behind

What models and what transmission? The only outliers is the GFDL< and the NOGAPS. Also, the new track from the NHC is in an no change.

[Trader Ron]

I see a lil more North from the earlier runs.

[cape_escape]

Well im feeling more and more confident that this system will make it across south flordia and into the gulf of mexico. The W to WNW turn that they have been forecasting has started basicly 24 hours eariler than expected. By that happening whatever little weakness that might be on the east coast might not be strong enough to pick her up since she might be futher south than thought, Thus the high will continue to build in strong and force her into the gulf. So i say the people in south flordia and the people along the nothern gulf coast from central louisiana to moblie alabama look out.

Lilbump....that really scares me, because, if I remember correctly, you were pretty good at guessing where Charley was going....Correct me if I'm wrong, as that was a very stressful time of my life...

[Huckster]

I see a lil more North from the earlier runs.

TPC track looks to be adjusted slightly to the right at the very end. Still doesn't look good for the Bahamas or Florida. This would all be so much easier if we could just eliminate some of the variables...slight changes in motion, Gaston, possible weaknesses in the ridge, etc...

[hookemfins]

Where can I find that map at the top??