Is the government prepared for an $80 billion disaster?

[logybogy]

If Frances hits South Florida as a Cat 5 with a large wind field, it could potentially cause upwards of $80 billion in damage and leave over a million people homeless.

Would the insurance companies be able to handle that kind of diaster?

Will they go broke and the government have to bail them out?

[dhweather]

This would cause many insurance companies to go bankrupt. The Government would have to bail
out folks.

[weatherdude]

Now lets not go estimating damage costs above 50 billion right now...that seems a little extreme. Even if Frances does hit S FL as a cat 5...which actually loooks less likely right now...damages would probably not be around 80 billion. Andrew back in 1992 was 25 billion. Yes I know that was 12 years ago and house, land prices etc have gone up, but $80 billion in damages is a little out of the picture...

[HeatherAKC]

My husband and I were having this exact discussion today. We concluded that the government would have to bail out the insurance companies.

[logybogy]

No, it's not out of the picture.

Andrew was a small compact storm that hit the least populated part of Dade County

You plow this storm over Downtown Miami with a 20 mile wide eye and believe me 80 billion is likely optimistic.

Do you know how many people live within 20 miles of downtown miami? 2 million.

[TS Zack]

You also got to remember if it goes through Florida it is then in the Gulf and has to make landfall somewhere else.

[TLHR]

Maybe the government will pass The Tropical Act....



(sorry. gallows humor...)

[Windtalker]

If they can spend up to 3 times more in Iraq, they surely can do it here.

[crazycajuncane]

The Tropical Act..... Anyone who lives 30 miles from the coast will have to pay 500% more in insurance!

In all seriousness, what if it hits Flordia and heads back into the gulf? Then, We could be talking a major economic disaster on top of Charley.

[Stratosphere747]

According to the Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction, as of 2002, there was an estimated $6.4 trillion worth of insured property in the 168 coastal counties from Texas to Massachusetts. It must be kept in perspective, however, that this figure only includes counties directly on the Gulf or Atlantic coast, and doesn't included public infrastructure or the uninsured. Compounding this problem is that people of greater wealth are continually moving to coastal areas, and coastal real estate costs are increasing much faster than real estate costs inland.

I could go into great detail about the magnitude of the economic loss that would occur if Frances would go thru Miami and into the Gulf...

After Charley this would create a major weight on our economy...It would not be so much immediate, but in a month or so we would see it on the market...Now imagine after getting in the gulf...and going towards either N.O. or Houston...Scary thoughts....

[adelphi_sky]

$80 billion seems about right. Gee $25 12 years ago. You figure it's got to be anywhere from $35 - $55 billion now. And like the previous poster said, Miami is not a suburb. Think about the downtown high rent district, corporate buildings, tourist attractions, not to mention lush estates by stars, CEOs, the rich. Again, 2 million people with at least $2500 damage to each home. $80 billion easy. Not saying every home will be damaged. But you can imagine. It's just not the physical damage, it's the cleanup effort, etc. And how many tourist do you know will visit with Miami looking like a war zone. Nada.

[AussieMark]

Now lets not go estimating damage costs above 50 billion right now...that seems a little extreme. Even if Frances does hit S FL as a cat 5...which actually loooks less likely right now...damages would probably not be around 80 billion. Andrew back in 1992 was 25 billion. Yes I know that was 12 years ago and house, land prices etc have gone up, but $80 billion in damages is a little out of the picture...

if u look at

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E12.html

U will see that if the Miami Hurricane of 1926 hit today it would cause $98 Billion.

[STORMSURGE]

they'll blame Bush!

[dhweather]

Like I said about Charley, perhaps Florida will realize that there is much
more to life than a swinging chad.

[SeaBrz_FL]

As I'm sure it's true with every state, it's impossible to evenly divide home values by population throughout the state to come to an estimate of losses.

As devastating as it was to those affected by Andrew and Charley, landfall both times was in some of the least expensive realty areas of their respective markets.

To further prove the point, HALF of the reported $$$ losses from Charley are in the Orlando area. While very few homes were totally destroyed (versus Punta Gorda) as this Cat 1 hit the area, the home values of the damaged homes far exceed the average home value in Charlotte County.

This is what the South FL posters are trying to point out. Homestead FL was/is not the "high rent" district of the Miami area.

I happen to be in Ft. Lauderdale today for a birthday party and took the Water Taxi down the north FLL end of the Intercoastal Waterway to entertain some out-of-towners. Seven miles of nice to fabulous homes, and our driver stated the purchase prices started at $1M. These were NOT beachfront homes, and were NOT in trendy South Beach, Miami.

Very similar situations exist on all coasts through the state. Exactly where the storm decides to plow through can change the insurance losses by 10X or more.

[Steve]

Considering that this Congress with the blessing of this president spends like a "drunken sailor" (tm - John McCain), it's just another credit card expenditure to them. With the debt ceiling being broken 3 times in 4 years and with record deficit spending in 2004, they'll find the money. While any real conservative should be outraged that there is no margin (tax cuts + massive government increases unpaid for) for error. The government needs to go and be replaced by a more responsible element. If they fail, they should be replaced following the next 4 year cycle.

Gak

Steve

[Brent]

Like I said about Charley, perhaps Florida will realize that there is much
more to life than a swinging chad.

LOL!

God is punishing Florida over that whole mess.

[PTPatrick]

I know it has occured to somebody beside me...this thing could vrey well tack the track straigh through Miami-West Palm area, which would be bad enough, and strike the New Orleans...It is hard to imagine 2 of the worst senarios in the same storm, but it seems quite possible at this point...if that were the case, we would be looking upwards of 150 billion

[Steve]

>>I know it has occured to somebody beside me...this thing could vrey well tack the track straigh through Miami-West Palm area, which would be bad enough, and strike the New Orleans...It is hard to imagine 2 of the worst senarios in the same storm, but it seems quite possible at this point...if that were the case, we would be looking upwards of 150 billion

Hey Patrick - that would be similar to Betsy and Andrew. I'm sticking with my call from Thursday or Friday that it will hit in southern NC if it makes landfall in the USA, but it would be interesting were she to hit SFL and then enter the Gulf. It's a plausible scenario but one I personally don't expect. Bastardi said he was talking with his dad and he also mentioned the possibility of a ridge (one's coming anyway) influenced further by building in behind Gaston. The Gulf is hot, but I think we're still 2-3 weeks away from 2, 3 or 4 named storms.

Steve

[PTPatrick]

I know that is what happened with betsy and Andrew...all the more reason to be concerned. Andrew didnt give New Orleans or Miami his brunt though. I am hoping this think is a fish, but I am not expecting it to be. On some level I hope that if it has to go somewhere in that south florida track and up to the northern gulf it does so by way of the straight with only one landfall. I know that might be mean a strong storm, but still undoubtedly better than a double landfall. Of course the Carolinas are still an option...Wonder is Frances is a James Taylor fan?