Frances Advisories

[logybogy]

That's not true.

9 mph is not really that slow for a hurricane.

There's plenty of warm water ahead of it. Upwelling is only a concern if a system stalls.

[Suncat]

I am begining to think that a NC/SC hit is not unreasonable. There seems to be a bit of a turn to the NWto NNW at the end of the prediction period. Just have to keep watching and getting prepared...no matter where you live on the SE coast.

[ALhurricane]

Upwelling is not an issue at all. A hurricane moving at 10 mph will not cause upwelling. In fact, Frances is moving toward even warmer waters...which will support futher intensification.

[Janie34]

Even so, how long can a storm maintain a strong Cat 4 or a Cat 5 status?

[Vortex]

Does anyone have the 00z Nhc hurricane suite for Frances...I can't seem to get them..thanks

[feederband]

warm waters low shear it can stay cat 4 to 5 untill land fall

[weatherdude]

For all the Floridians' sake, lets hope this storm doesn't make landfall anywhere near the SE coast. In fact, I am feeling more and more like Frances will take a NW turn before about 70W and possibly affect the Carolinas into the mid atlantic...you may have your doubts and I do to...but if forecasts hold this residents along the coastal areas of the SE Coast could be in for a rough ride next week.

[Matthew5]

It has a perfectly round eye that you can see down to the surface. I think the winds will be 135 to 140 at 11pm.

[cycloneye]

That 20n-60w is an important position to watch as Frances nears it and it is called the Hebert box.I say just south of that position.

[Aquawind]

Sure is Dixie..I don't care if landfall is on the other side of the state..They have alot of Debris yet to haul away from Charley..Some serious consequences for Florida..Probably much larger than Charley with talk of CAT 5..ugh..It is kinda scary from what have seen the last couple weeks..and to kick it NHC is more confident of thier forecast than usual from the verbage I have read..

[ChaserUK]

We will certainly have a Cat 5 tomorrow sometime - for sure. As you say, nothing but warm water and low shear from this point onwards.

[perk]

I think upwelling is cooler water left behind. There is only warmer water ahead of Frances. Check out the NHC discussion.

[golter]

I just cant see it making to the south, but Ive been wrong before, I see it crossing 20 @ 57.5

[Brent]

It's going to be within .3 degrees one way or the other IMO. I can't say, it's too close to call.

[Guest]

what the heck, ill go with north.

[Derek Ortt]

We wont have a cat 5 tomorrow in all liklihood as this will likely go through another eye wall cycle

[Weatherboy1]

And it's interesting to note that at the tail end of the runs, there is a hint of some more NW movement in the BAMM models and LBAR. Wonder if maybe FL could get saved by a late recurve. We'll have to see if this trend persists.

ftp://ftp.met.fsu.edu/pub/weather/tropical/Model/

[*StOrmsPr*]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 290028
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040829 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040829 0000 040829 1200 040830 0000 040830 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.1N 53.0W 18.8N 54.6W 19.1N 56.4W 19.3N 58.6W
BAMM 18.1N 53.0W 18.8N 54.6W 19.2N 56.5W 19.4N 59.0W
A98E 18.1N 53.0W 18.9N 54.6W 20.0N 56.3W 21.1N 58.2W
LBAR 18.1N 53.0W 19.0N 54.6W 19.6N 56.5W 19.9N 58.7W
SHIP 115KTS 118KTS 116KTS 115KTS
DSHP 115KTS 118KTS 116KTS 115KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040831 0000 040901 0000 040902 0000 040903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.4N 61.0W 19.9N 66.0W 20.9N 69.8W 22.5N 72.2W
BAMM 19.6N 61.5W 20.3N 66.9W 21.1N 71.2W 22.2N 74.0W
A98E 22.1N 61.0W 25.1N 66.9W 27.5N 71.2W 28.4N 72.9W
LBAR 20.3N 61.2W 21.2N 66.4W 21.7N 70.7W 22.6N 73.2W
SHIP 113KTS 105KTS 97KTS 89KTS
DSHP 113KTS 105KTS 97KTS 89KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.1N LONCUR = 53.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.2N LONM12 = 51.6W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 50.1W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 948MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 100NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 100NM

[southerngale]

I just get a red X

[dixiebreeze]

Aquawind, it's really hard to imagine the Charlotte County area getting another hit at this point. Disaster resources must be nearing the end of their rope, so to speak.