Frances Advisories

[Guest]

I think ncweatherwizard does a good job forecasting. He has been the only one close to/right on the intensity of this hurricane every time. He says specifically he is not the NHC, and his track is good. I like his, floydbusters, and dereks forecast alot more than the NHC's. However, when it comes down to everything, the NHC is the one to look at right before landfall.

[Anonymous]

Why then, are so many posters predicting a northward turn and up the east coast? Is there something that they see that the rest of us do not? Just wondering.

In the link above, the NHC track forecast for Mon-Wed is a straight as an arrow line. You can click the link and lay a piece of paper over the dots... Thursdays position is not inline with those dots and is a sign of at least some turn poleward by 120 hrs.... Hopefully this is a trend and it makes a U turn in the end and goes to sea!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

we have a cat.5 hurricane forming soon and might hit florida and the scaRY THING IT SOUTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS POSSILBE CAT.5 HURRICANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[chris_fit]

we can only hope Jekyhe

[Anonymous]

Yep....just believe/follow what the NHC has to say, just before landfall. They really aren't as good as ncweatherwizard, or many other non-qualified persons on this board. That's the ticket!

I will take Mike Watkins, and the Air Force met., before any many others on this board. Not to mention, other professional mets. that frequent here. The rest of us are "guessers", and not forecasters. Just remember that.

[Brent]

Why then, are so many posters predicting a northward turn and up the east coast? Is there something that they see that the rest of us do not? Just wondering.

In the link above, the NHC track forecast for Mon-Wed is a straight as an arrow line. You can click the link and lay a piece of paper over the dots... Thursdays position is not inline with those dots and is a sign of at least some turn poleward by 120 hrs.... Hopefully this is a trend and it makes a U turn in the end and goes to sea!!!

Won't happen. It would go into the Carolinas. This will not miss the U.S.

[Anonymous]

I think it may be a "mini hurricane".

I remember reading or hearing about, in intense Hurricanes, Hurricane hunters have seen what they have described as mini vorticies, above the highest cloud tops. I have witnessed this sort of thing in other intense Hurricanes, through satelite imagery before. Don't know if I am exactly correct in my analogy, but this is what I remember.

[MGC]

Until the Gulfstream data is incorporated into the model runs, I'd not revert into panic mode just yet. Depending on what the Gulfstream finds in the upper air enviroment ahead of Frances will be the key in the models getting a good handle on the forecast track. Looking at the WV imagery this evening does reveal a high to the north or Frances that is building southward. A potential weakness in the ridge is the low pressure system near Bermuda. Considering its close proximity to Gaston though I doubt this has much influency on Frances track. Bottom line, I'd be paying a whole lot of attention to Frances the next week. I sure hope Frances decides to go fish!.....MGC

[wx247]

I do too MGC. I just don't see it happening, unfortunately.

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

Everyone here is not pulling for a florida landfall, it looks like north carolina, south carolina may receive this nasty little surprise, some models are showing a possible change in northward direction in the coming days.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Over the last 4 hours position fixes show at least a 290 degree heading, maybe slightly more westerly then that.

[lilbump3000]

Yeh she been heading WNW for the past couple of hours now.

[JQ Public]

both florida and the carolinas have been ravaged by several storms. Frances needs to buck the trend and go out to sea!

[cinlfla]

I agree on the wnw, please don't make fun me but I took a peice of paper and folded it in half and held it up to France's starting point on the loop and IMO she is heading wnw.
Cindy

[Brent]

Defintely WNW. Might be a little south of the NHC track...

[Stratosphere747]

Need a little help from the experts here...

I have been going by the GOES Floater images the last 3 hours and it looks as if it is almost going on a more due west course than anything....I know that it is not, but what causes this *slight of hand* view??

[abajan]

By moving so slowly Frances' own upwelling may slow its intensification. Mind you, knowing how these systems have a tendency to intensify overnight, I'm still expecting to see something very close to category 5 by daybreak.

Time will tell.

[WeatherEmperor]

I agree on the wnw, please don't make fun me but I took a peice of paper and folded it in half and held it up to France's starting point on the loop and IMO she is heading wnw.
Cindy

I do that alot too. Hey its fun to do.

<RICKY>

[Aquawind]

Yeow..Wow..Not to happy from what I have read and seen has transpired today..Not Good..NHC is on it...WNW continues..Whata eye!!

[EDR1222]

I was wondering about possible upwelling as well. The storm is large and is moving slowly. Although the sst's out ahead of it, especially toward the bahamas are very warm.