Frances Advisories

[Patrick99]

I'm not biting on Florida yet - I need to see it take more of a prolonged westerly motion. At this point, I still think it's gaining too much latitude to hit Florida. And how will Gaston and that little blob off Bermuda affect the ridge? Don't departing tropical systems tend to leave weaknesses in the ridge? Over the years, we've heard a hundred times about how Hurricane ______ is going right up the weakness left behind by Hurricane ________. Why wouldn't it happen in this case?

[Guest]

Thats an excellent advisory/analysis. More accurate and descriptive than the NHC too

[MWatkins]

Thank you for an excellent analysis. Could you elaborate on the more immediate threat to the the Northeastern Caribbean?
The westward movement is of concern here.
Thank you again,
irina

You're quite welcome...I added your question to the list above...here is the answer...

Q: What should residents of the Northern Caribbean be doing right now?
A: Along it's current forecast track...Frances will pass to the north of the islands...but close enough to potentially create tropical storm conditions there. Tropical Storm watches will likely be issued later tonight or in the morning...which suggests that there could be some downed tree branches and as a result a potential loss of power. Residents with boats should consider securing them at some point.

Should the hurricane deviate just a little south of it's current track it could still conceivably affect the northern most islands. So...residents there should review the question above...and make sure they review their hurricane plans.

MW

[Guest]

I'm at 50/50 on whether Frances makes it to the coast as far south as FL. Conditions have to remain perfect (or unperfect) for a cane at this lat/long to continue on a W-WNW track for a week. Any weakening of the ridge to the north will mean big track changes. We already have one surprise in the strength of Gaston.

As you can see its happened before.With such a dangerous hurricane lurking & NHC so emphatic about their forecast its a good time to place your bets with them & if things change so be it.

[ColdFront77]

Erratic movement occurs with tropical cyclones that move slowly, too... so add this one slowing down and being at this strength...

[B-Bear]

I'm not biting on Florida yet - I need to see it take more of a prolonged westerly motion. At this point, I still think it's gaining too much latitude to hit Florida. And how will Gaston and that little blob off Bermuda affect the ridge? Don't departing tropical systems tend to leave weaknesses in the ridge? Over the years, we've heard a hundred times about how Hurricane ______ is going right up the weakness left behind by Hurricane ________. Why wouldn't it happen in this case?

They are taking those systems into consideration in their track forecasts. They are expected to be out of the way early enough to allow the ridge to fill in behind them after they depart. Therefore, they are not currently predicted to affect the steering of Frances.

[Patrick99]

....the 5 most infamous SE FL hurricanes of the "bad old days!"

[btsgmdad]

Nikolai is absolutely correct. Incredibly powerful systems such as these quite often defy logic and create their own environment. Everyone should monitor this situation carefully, particularly those on the Atlantic coast from NC to FLA.

[WeatherEmperor]

This is why we have to put our faith in the NHC more then anybody else. They have far more sophisticated data then we do.

<RICKY>

[Patrick99]

They are taking those systems into consideration in their track forecasts. They are expected to be out of the way early enough to allow the ridge to fill in behind them after they depart. Therefore, they are not currently predicted to affect the steering of Frances.

Wow.....guess I better make preliminary plans to deal with a potentially tough storm, then.

I played golf today down in S. Dade, and I swear, some guy who lives just off the 3rd hole had his windows boarded up, and his pool furniture secured. I kid you not.

[tampastorm]

How long it forecasted to go west. The reason I ask is I live in Tampa, and was wondering if it is forecasted to turn more northwest and head up my way at any point?

[c5Camille]

way way too early to tell...

[southerngale]

[schmita]

Thanks for your quick response. Information is scarce here. I am constantly checking this site for guidance.
Will gas up the truck tomorrow.
irina

[lilbump3000]

Looks like a Cat. 5 already.

[KeyLargoDave]

The latest UKMET track I see is today's 12Z, and it shows the track at the mainland (25.6/80.5) at 12Z 9/3 -- that's 8 am EDT FRIDAY, right? I don't understand the mention of Frances reaching Miami on Thursday (not the center, at least).

Dave

[Weatherboy1]

patrick -- I agree with you, there have been countless storms that were predicted to head toward South FL that were eventually turned away, fell apart, etc. But I have a bad feeling about this one ... a bad feeling that is unfortunately backed up by consistent model runs and the NHC forecast track. This COULD turn into an Andrew-type situation, and as a south Floridian, that is NOT something I say casually. This is the time to get some water, make sure you know where your shutters are, check the batteries, etc. Hopefully, it will be a wasted effort and this thing will go elsewhere. But with each new model run, my concern level goes up.

[Ixolib]

Gotta love that reflection off the eyewall..... Too cool!!

[Guest]

its soooo nice. and beautiful. Lucky noone lives near it right now.

[Stormsfury]

Awesome satellite representation of a stadium effect eye ... in which generally only occurs in the most intense hurricanes ...