Robert
FXUS62 KEYW 281836
AFDEYW
FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR HAS KEPT THE CLOUD LINES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS
RELATIVELY QUIET SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. KBYX RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT
THE OTHER SMALL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WELL OFF ON THE
ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE...AND
AT TIMES CALM FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
.FORECASTS...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL LIFT TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS FOR THE
LOCAL AREA. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LITTLE DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR THROUGH THIS TIME AND THE GFS POP NUMBERS REMAIN QUITE
LOW. BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST. THIS
POINTS TO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE SHORT TO MID RANGE PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME ON MOSTLY SMALL SCALE AND SUBTLE
FEATURES. UPPER RIDGING PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR HURRICANE
FRANCES CALLS FOR A SLOW TRANSITION TO A WEST/NORTHWEST TRACK FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS TAKES FRANCES CLOSE TO
THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY...AND THEN APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN
THE WEEK OR EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OF COURSE...UNCERTAINTY
IN LOCATION AND STRENGTH AT TIMES THAT FAR OUT. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME AND BASED ON THE OFFICIAL TPC TRACK...WILL GO AHEAD AND UP OUR
RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND PUT THE MENTION OF BREEZY
OR POSSIBLY WINDY IN FOR SATURDAY WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST.
&&
.MARINE...
AWAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER NICE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PLAN TO
KEEP VARIABLE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS MENTIONED ALL THE WAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LIGHT BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST/
SOUTHEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...WITH HURRICANE FRANCES
APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY...THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES SHOULD BEGIN FEELING ITS AFFECTS. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. BOATERS AND ALL PERSONS IN THE KEYS SHOULD
KEEP ABREAST OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHEN MAKING ANY
PLANS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 81 90 81 90 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 80 93 81 93 / 30 30 30 30
&&
$$