Frances Advisories

#1501 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:02 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

I have a feeling it will be a bit S. of the projected track by the end of the 5-day period.

#1502 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:05 pm

This is hilarious. I don't want to become unpopular..geez...um...what do I want to say first. I remember a few people with a different storm situation that were die-hard Isabel into Florida based on the models. Die hard. Did it? I'm not saying "I am 100% correct". I know better than that. As for the person who obviously insinuated with "especially when it appears the last piece of the 'cast is bending toward the area where the forecast lives." Um..no...that's all I need to say there, and I'll keep it polite this once. I'm not stopping my forecasts and my research just because a government agency has an opposing forecast. Somebody will be right; it may not be me.

Oh yeah, and: "Although these forecasts have been shown reliable, first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center."

And tell me again why we go through this every time I put out a product? Don't take my response offensively, but understand I'm getting a little tired of this.

lilbump3000 · #1503 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:05 pm

I dont think this forecast will change to much in the coming days so i advise flordia to really pay attention and get ready.

Stratosphere747 · #1504 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:05 pm

I have to give NCWwizard some credit here...He has this posted up front on his forecast...We all may not agree with it but he does say to look at the NHC first and foremost....Also if you go back and look at some of his archives he has done a fairly good job...

What has quite a few people antsy is what may lie ahead...Charley snuck up on Florida in the sense that he exploded so quickly before landfall...Not so with Frances, there will be no surprise with her unless she takes a NE turn and does not hit the US...

chris_fit · #1505 Postby **chris_fit** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:07 pm

last 3 hours confirm pretty much.... SLIGHTLY north of due west

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Derek Ortt · #1506 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:08 pm

His forecast is not toally unreasonable.

In fact, many of the models that are not released on the web sites happen to have the storm in his very position. To say that it is totally clueless is clueless, IMO

#1507 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:09 pm

Whoops my boo booo...i stand corrected! Forgive me?

Guest · #1508 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:09 pm

NHC is even mentioning in the discussion about the confidence they have in this forecast & they do handle these westward moving hurricanes well.

#1509 Postby **Trader Ron** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:11 pm

It looks scary today. Will it verify a week from now? I have my druthers.

Guest · #1510 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:11 pm

NC let me apologize because I thought you wrote it WON'T hit Fl. Maybe next time I should read a little closer. Everyone is entitled to an opinion we are 7 days out.

Website · #1511 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:12 pm

USAwx1 wrote:Alright, lets NOT try to jump the gun here regarding MIA. The track of the system may also be impacted by the weak trough coming through the MS valley toward next weekend--not just determined by the configuration of the deep-layer ridge. Both will be critical in determining landfall potential in the coming days.

I think the bottom line here is this is going to hit SOMEWHERE. :eek:

AL Chili Pepper · #1512 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:15 pm

I'm at 50/50 on whether Frances makes it to the coast as far south as FL. Conditions have to remain perfect (or unperfect) for a cane at this lat/long to continue on a W-WNW track for a week. Any weakening of the ridge to the north will mean big track changes. We already have one surprise in the strength of Gaston.

#1513 Postby **ncweatherwizard** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:15 pm

No problem fellows...just so long as we can keep peace.

#1514 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:16 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:His forecast is not toally unreasonable.

In fact, many of the models that are not released on the web sites happen to have the storm in his very position. To say that it is totally clueless is clueless, IMO

This is true...however...some of these models you are are referring to are actually availabe to the public if they know where to look...and some of these that arent (like the GUNA) are getting skewed because the NOGAPS model is screwing up the consensus.

I HOPE that something does develop to draw this system up to the NW on or at day 5...but synoptically...the NHC track forecast is as straight forward as a batting-practice fastball.

MW

#1515 Postby **USAwx1** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:18 pm

Brent wrote:
USAwx1 wrote:Alright, lets NOT try to jump the gun here regarding MIA. The track of the system may also be impacted by the weak trough coming through the MS valley toward next weekend--not just determined by the configuration of the deep-layer ridge. Both will be critical in determining landfall potential in the coming days.

I think the bottom line here is this is going to hit SOMEWHERE.

Thats pretty much Obvious...lol. BUT im not going to take the bait on the MIA track yet. I will elaborate in more depth as to what my thinking is on MON. Remember the synoptic pattern dictates how the track of these systems evolve over time, and where or if they make landfall in a given location. Until i have a good handle on it, i don't want to commit to anything other than just examining the (right now) wide range of options.

schmita · #1516 Postby **schmita** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:18 pm

Thank you for an excellent analysis. Could you elaborate on the more immediate threat to the the Northeastern Caribbean?
The westward movement is of concern here.
Thank you again,
irina

Website · #1517 Postby **Brent** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:20 pm

If the 18z UKMET is right, this will make landfall on Thursday in Miami. So it could hit earlier than we think.

#1518 Postby **USAwx1** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:24 pm

Brent wrote:If the 18z UKMET is right, this will make landfall on Thursday in Miami. So it could hit earlier than we think.

I'm not trying to downplay the threat to Miami. As for right now suffice to say if you are Between Key Largo and Savannah, GA you should be paying VERY close attention to the every move of Frances.

Guest · #1519 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:25 pm

Remember everyone, heres some points on what this system has done:
-It has strengthened rapidly (and unprecedented)
-It defied all the forecast models in its early stages (moved west continuosly)
So bottom line is, watch out. Anything is possible at this point. This system can start creating its own environment as well, so erratic movement is now possible.

Guest · #1520 Postby **Guest** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 4:25 pm

Remember everyone, heres some points on what this system has done:
-It has strengthened rapidly (and unprecedented)
-It defied all the forecast models in its early stages (moved west continuosly)
So bottom line is, watch out. Anything is possible at this point. This system can start creating its own environment as well, so erratic movement is now possible.

Frances Advisories

Still scary Frances 5-day track map at 5 p.m....

Excellent

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