Frances Advisories

[James]

Frances is now a 115kt hurricane, and is expected to peak at 125kts in 24 hours and maintain that throughout the forecast period. However, the NHC does say that it could reach near-CAT 5 status at any time, although it is more likely around 84hours.

[lilbump3000]

Ok the NHC track is basicly the same, but for some reason, every forecast that NC guy puts out he coutinues to shift his track further and futher to the right. Hmmmmmmmm if your forecast are right for this system i will have a little more faith in you, but for now im going with the NHC.

[caneman]

I do weaken this some at 120 hours, as a northwestward turn is expected somewhere toward the end of the forecast period. I really do not feel that this is a significant danger to Florida; however, I'm not confident enough yet to say it is definitely not.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

No disrespect but what ya smokin'?

[ncweatherwizard]

First, go with whoever you want to--whoever makes you feel most comfortable. Personally, I suggest consulting a variety of sources--that seems like the best idea. Y'all act like I've been terribly wrong all the time. In fact I am very effective at forecasting long term in the central and western atlantic--and saying its a guess is absolutely ludicrous. And BTW, this forecast was shifted slightly left. No hard feeling guys, I just want to set things straight.

[ChaserUK]

YIKES! So landfall looks to be Saturday?

[ColdFront77]

"The turn" doesn't mean it will necessarily stay westward...

[caneman]

First, go with whoever you want to--whoever makes you feel most comfortable. Personally, I suggest consulting a variety of sources--that seems like the best idea. Y'all act like I've been terribly wrong all the time. In fact I am very effective at forecasting long term in the central and western atlantic--and saying its a guess is absolutely ludicrous. And BTW, this forecast was shifted slightly left. No hard feeling guys, I just want to set things straight.

You might want to look at Forecaster Stewarts 5:00 write up. Scary stuff. Doesn't look good for Florida right now. My opinion is forecast away but with a storm like this and this far out, I would be careful in actually telling people they are of the hook. This looks to be a cAt. 5!

[chris_fit]

WOW

[stu]

Looks like a early Friday landfall Matt.

[BayouVenteux]

Some proper context to the "beeline" scenario map: WHILE OUR CURRENT FORECAST ERRORS ARE QUITE GOOD...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS TO MAKE IT TOO EARLY TO TRY AND DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL.HOWEVER...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO CHECK THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND SUPPLIES.

[Guest]

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[LowMug]

First, go with whoever you want to--whoever makes you feel most comfortable. Personally, I suggest consulting a variety of sources--that seems like the best idea. Y'all act like I've been terribly wrong all the time. In fact I am very effective at forecasting long term in the central and western atlantic--and saying its a guess is absolutely ludicrous. And BTW, this forecast was shifted slightly left. No hard feeling guys, I just want to set things straight.

You might want to look at Forecaster Stewarts 5:00 write up. Scary stuff. Doesn't look good for Florida right now. My opinion is forecast away but with a storm like this and this far out, I would be careful in actually telling people they are of the hook. This looks to be a cAt. 5!

Exactly what I said yesterday...these "amateur" forecasts can be extremely misleading to those who do not know...especially when it appears the last piece of the 'cast is bending towards the area where the forecaster lives. I do not mean to insult at all...I just say it how I see it...

The NHC rules supreme and are beyond adequate to provide us with a forecast, discussion, and explanation...PEOPLE LET THEM DO IT...if you have a forecast place a disclaimer at the beginning stating you are only doing this to see how well you correspond to the NHC...

Things are beginning to look extremely grave for the Bahamas and Southern Florida...Let's hope something changes soon!!!

[Brent]

They also mention it could be near Cat 5 tomorrow.

Nightmare.

[NorthGaWeather]

What I found interesting is that it will have the most Favorable conditions to become a Cat 5 about two days before landfall.

[USAwx1]

Alright, lets NOT try to jump the gun here regarding MIA. The track of the system may also be impacted by the weak trough coming through the MS valley toward next weekend--not just determined by the configuration of the deep-layer ridge. Both will be critical in determining landfall potential in the coming days.

[WeatherEmperor]

"Exactly what I said yesterday...these "amateur" forecasts can be extremely misleading to those who do not know...especially when it appears the last piece of the 'cast is bending towards the area where the forecaster lives. I do not mean to insult at all...I just say it how I see it... "

LowMug said it perfectly and I could not agree more. I know I understand why you make your forecasts ncweatherwizard guy but I have to agree with LowMug that your forecast has a tad bit of NC bias towards it considering you live in NC. Let us just have faith and patience towards the NHC. Not even they know for certainty where Frances is going so lets take it easy.

<RICKY>

[caneman]

You know this is serious stuff if NHC is saying get prepared now. I have no problem with an amatuer putting out a forecast, coordinates, what have you but to say you don't think something is going to happen when NHC and models are giving more and more indication it will isn't a good idea.

[MWatkins]

Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances
5:00PM EDT 8/28/2004

...Frances Now a Dangerous Category Four Hurricane...Additional Strengthening is Expected...

CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT

Frances has a classic appearance in visible satellite imagery this evening. A well-defined 20 nautical mile eye is embedded in a very symmetrial CDO. Upper outflow is is excellent with a very well-developed outflow jet to the north and east of the hurricane. Low clouds are bending toward the hurricane over 300 nautical miles away from the center. Not many other ways to describe how well-organized this hurricane is...and strengthening is expected. Frances is now a dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale.

Satellite imagery from about 1:30PM this afternoon on suggest that the northwestward motion has come to an end...and the hurricane now appears to be moving back to the WNW.

5 DAY FORECAST MOTION

Given the impressive outflow pattern...Frances appears to be enhancing the ridge to the north...and as a result of this plus building pressure height north of the system should allow the hurricane to come westward for some time to come.

Other than the Navy NOGAPS model...all of the track guidance and global guidance are in excellent agreement through 120 hours...in fact better than I have ever seen from these models before. All suggest that Frances will be in the south or Central Bahamas by day 5. The European model once again this afternoon places a very strong ridge to the north of the hurricane...as do the UKMET and GFS models.

Tropical Storm Gaston is forecast to lift out to the north and east over the coming days....and should be well clear of the pattern before Frances crosses 65W...in three days.

FORECAST INTENSITY

Frances should remain a dangerous hurricane throughout the next 5 days...and unfortunately...the warmest water lies ahead...once the system crosses 70 west. The system is expected to remain a strong Category 4 hurricane...with the potential for fluctuations above and jut below Category 5 intensity...throughout the next 5 days and beyond.

EXTENDED MOTION

Beyond 5 days...of course...forecast errors are quite high. As mentioned above...all of the models save NOGAPS place a large and deep ridge to the north which will allow the hurricane to continue to the west through the forecast period and into the extended period. Beyond day 5...the hurricane is expected to become a significant threat to the Southeast US coast. It is still to early to tell if this system will cross Florida and go into the Gulf...but the possibilities are going up given the strong model consensus.

Also...the TPC plans to fly research and surveillance missions in the environment north of Frances starting on Sunday evening. This will provide the models with some additional data and the forecasts from these models should be more accurate as a result. On average...forecast track errors with the additional data are 30% less than when the models run without this information.

MISC QUESTIONS

Q: What should residents of Florida and the Bahamas be doing right now?
A: Residents should take time over the next day to review their hurricane plans and bring them up to date. If residents do not have a plan...now would be a good time to make one. More preliminary steps can be found in this post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=39085

Q: What should residents of the Northern Caribbean be doing right now?
A: Along it's current forecast track...Frances will pass to the north of the islands...but close enough to potentially create tropical storm conditions there. Tropical Storm watches will likely be issued later tonight or in the morning...which suggests that there could be some downed tree branches and as a result a potential loss of power. Residents with boats should consider securing them at some point.

Should the hurricane deviate just a little south of it's current track it could still conceivably affect the northern most islands. So...residents there should review the question above...and make sure they review their hurricane plans.

Q: I live in (ANY CITY) and our meteorologist thinks the system is coming here...what should I do?
A: This far out...landfall points are guesswork. We have plenty of time to watch this system...you should go ahead and do everything you should have done at the beginning of the year...including getting your hurricane plan and supplies together. From there...no additional action is needed before a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area...unless there are things you should have already done still left to do.

Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appears this could be another 7 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.

We will update or replace this update around 11PM tonight. Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.

MW

[Pebbles]

I like amature and pro forecasts at this site, and would like to continue to see them. I agree though...specially in situations when tensions start rising like is happening now, to put a disclaimer...then that way people won't worry that those less informed will mistaken forcasts for offical word or better then listening to the NHC. And all those trying to forecast won't have feelings hurt or get offended. *hugs*

[ChaserUK]

I see Stu - have been thinking that for a while now.