Frances Advisories

[Pebbles]

Hello Pebbles...we moved to Chicago area in Dec after 19 years in Raleigh. We know the hurricane hurry up and wait drill for sure, don't we!

Been lurking on the board for a couple of years. Have learned a lot from the Pro Am Mets that provide incredible insight. BTW my Mom still lives on Ocean Isle Beach, so storms like Frances cause me concern.

Mark

Hiya nice to see another NC relocater to Chi town.. my mother still lives in New Bern too...in fact you'll see her post here sometimes as NCBird. Thanks for saying hi.

[jlauderdal]

lol ... how do you know only the ones in Bordeaux.....

because the only french girl with hairy armpits i knew was from bordeaux and the others that wern't from there were clean shaven... of course i am making assumptions on the jlauderdal model.

[snowflake]

I just hope this beauty decides to weaken before landfall.

[Derecho]

Keep in mind that estimate is NOT FROM THE NAVY, it's actually from NHC.

It's the same windspeed and pressure as the 18Z model init for the NHC runs on Frances.

NRL just updates the map notation with those estimates.

[Derecho]

Why is it that the NHC this year seems to be extremely low on their estimates of strengh, dangerously low in the case of Charley. I think every storm thats developed has done so fast and a lot stronger then they anticipate.

Because they're trying to be as accurate as possible for intensity forecasting.

The way you end up inaccurate is by forecasting extremes.

Rapid intensification in hurricanes cannot be forecasted.

So every single hurricane that DOES end up very strong ends up having been underforecasted by NHC, and creates the IMPRESSION that they are underforecasting intensity.

However, if you keep foreacasting every storm to massively intensify, you'll eventually get burned...badly.

I saw someone forecast Earl to 145 kts when it was a TS. It disappated.

That destroys your accuracy numbers when that happens.

Once you forecast for some sort of contest or in a formal way, you quickly understand why NHC is conservative on forecasting intensity.

[bfez1]

Very informative update! Thanks, Mike!

[elvinp]

Although I have been lurking for several years when hurricanes are on the loose, you are always one whom I respect and follow throughout the event. Thank you for sharing your insights with us.

[NorthGaWeather]

Stewart has mentioned several times that it could easily become a Cat 4 in the short term.

[Stormcenter]

Is it just me or has Frances slowed it's forward speed? This would not be good. I never have good feelings about hurricanes in general but this one has got me nervous for the people in Florida, again!!!

[BonesXL]

It also beginning to take a W or WNW motion. Not good at all.

[WeatherEmperor]

Perhaps it is too early to say but it appears that Frances has begun to turn more towards the W or even WNW. Maybe another few sat. loops will be able to confirm that soon.

<RICKY>

[ncweatherwizard]

I do weaken this some at 120 hours, as a northwestward turn is expected somewhere toward the end of the forecast period. I really do not feel that this is a significant danger to Florida; however, I'm not confident enough yet to say it is definitely not.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

[wx247]

It has wobbled WNW... don't think it has wobbled due west yet.

[WeatherEmperor]

Nice forecast and all but no offense man Id put my faith in the NHC forecast which is due in about 10-15 minutes.

<RICKY>

[ncweatherwizard]

The slower the better; then it would get picked up farther east; and the farther south the better, because it would have more room to turn.

[chris_fit]

Several frames show WNW now... maybe it's the turn

[wx247]

Several frames show WNW now... maybe it's the turn

If you slow it down, you will notice the trend of a couple of WNW frames followed by a NW frame or two and continue ad nauseum. What I find most siginificant is that if you look at the very first frame of the loop and then look at the latest frame of the visible loop... look at how Frances has organized and grown.

[logybogy]

[ColdFront77]

Rapid intensification in hurricanes cannot be forecasted.

The National Hurricane Center mentioned rapid intensification is possible
after the slow intensification process, that actually was moderate to rapid.

[Rainband]

I do weaken this some at 120 hours, as a northwestward turn is expected somewhere toward the end of the forecast period. I really do not feel that this is a significant danger to Florida; however, I'm not confident enough yet to say it is definitely not.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

With all due respect this is a danger to everyone until we know where it is an going. And at this point everyone except the NHC is guessing IMHO. the only ones I will listen too when the situation is so serious is the NHC.