12Z UKMET dead over Miami

[mobilebay]

At the end of the run. Folks, this is getting scary.

[Weatherboy1]

It IS just one model run, I know. But what I don't like is this convergence of multiple models ... run after run ... on or just south of south FL. I live in NE Palm Beach County, and am only about 150 miles from that last UKMET plot point. If by tomorrow night, the outlook still looks like this, then I think it's going to be time to start getting worried. Not there yet, though, with other models like NOGAPS, the Euro, GFDL still indicating that this thing could pass us by to the E and N.

[seahawkjd]

I understand why people are freaking out, but I mean keep in perspective how far away this thing is. I can't count on my hands the number of storms that have been doom and gloom this far out that something happened to turn it or weaken it. I mean time to get concerned definetely everywhere on the East coast, but just for perspective. Gloria was about to wipe out the town I lived in, just north of Cape Lookout. It literally turned at the last moment and paralleled the coast enough to spare a direct hit to NC. Now unfortunately that meant it went into New England, but just keep things in perspective. Also, as been stated before, if you are this worried now and you have a week or more to wait, you're going to be burned out watching frame by frame change by change over the next week. Lets not have a bunch of amatuer meteorologists in the psych ward after this passes lol.

[jlauderdal]

At the end of the run. Folks, this is getting scary.

so is the gfs at 174h

[mobilebay]

I understand why people are freaking out, but I mean keep in perspective how far away this thing is. I can't count on my hands the number of storms that have been doom and gloom this far out that something happened to turn it or weaken it. I mean time to get concerned definetely everywhere on the East coast, but just for perspective. Gloria was about to wipe out the town I lived in, just north of Cape Lookout. It literally turned at the last moment and paralleled the coast enough to spare a direct hit to NC. Now unfortunately that meant it went into New England, but just keep things in perspective. Also, as been stated before, if you are this worried now and you have a week or more to wait, you're going to be burned out watching frame by frame change by change over the next week. Lets not have a bunch of amatuer meteorologists in the psych ward after this passes lol.

OK. We just wont talk about it. Maybe it will just turn away.

[MWatkins]

It IS just one model run, I know. But what I don't like is this convergence of multiple models ... run after run ... on or just south of south FL. I live in NE Palm Beach County, and am only about 150 miles from that last UKMET plot point. If by tomorrow night, the outlook still looks like this, then I think it's going to be time to start getting worried. Not there yet, though, with other models like NOGAPS, the Euro, GFDL still indicating that this thing could pass us by to the E and N.

Actually...the 0Z euro is back to the monster ridge scenario...we only got one run with a weakened ridge out of the last 4. The 12Z should be out shortly but I'm not expecting any big changes.

Actually...that is yet another westward and faster shift from the UKMET.

MW

[seahawkjd]

I didn't mean don't talk about it. By all means its very informative. I was just reffering to the almost panic that was starting this far out. Don't want people to panic now and then get worn out/ complacent when the threat is actually approaching.