GFS 12Z run coming in...some changes

[Pebbles]

Why that really disturbs me is not only cause FL gets wacked..but you can almost bet that it will slip over that little bit of florida and set it's targets on somewhere along the gulf coast without losing too much steam in the process.

Edit: Sorry Gulfbreezer...posted the same thought at the same time you did!

That last part of your statement is VERY hard to predict. Sometimes these storms can go right across the penninsula without so much as a hiccup. Other times the landfall knocks the wind right out of them (pun intended).

Yes that is true....but if..and we know this is all speculation at this point..and stressing I am NOT even a very experienced amature mightest well a pro at tropics....but if this happened to pan out and tracks along the very lower tip of florida instead of a hundred miles or more further north...the impacts of land would probably be allot less...no? Look how little Charley's track over cuba effected it. In fact Charley looked to be intensifying over land due to what stage of development it was in.

Well if it just skirts the land then it seems unlikely to affect the intensity much. But if it makes true landfall, then I would think the forward speed of the storm would determine how much intensity was affected. Right now she is only moving about 9 mph...that's why I mentioned what I did. If she kept a low forward speed over land like that, it could signficantly diminish her windspeeds before she emerges in the Gulf. However, with conditions being so favorable in the warm Gulf waters for intensification, she could still be a signifcant problem even then.

You make a very good point about current track speed... Good constructive discussion. Thanks BBear.

[B-Bear]

Why that really disturbs me is not only cause FL gets wacked..but you can almost bet that it will slip over that little bit of florida and set it's targets on somewhere along the gulf coast without losing too much steam in the process.

Edit: Sorry Gulfbreezer...posted the same thought at the same time you did!

That last part of your statement is VERY hard to predict. Sometimes these storms can go right across the penninsula without so much as a hiccup. Other times the landfall knocks the wind right out of them (pun intended).

Yes that is true....but if..and we know this is all speculation at this point..and stressing I am NOT even a very experienced amature mightest well a pro at tropics....but if this happened to pan out and tracks along the very lower tip of florida instead of a hundred miles or more further north...the impacts of land would probably be allot less...no? Look how little Charley's track over cuba effected it. In fact Charley looked to be intensifying over land due to what stage of development it was in.

Well if it just skirts the land then it seems unlikely to affect the intensity much. But if it makes true landfall, then I would think the forward speed of the storm would determine how much intensity was affected. Right now she is only moving about 9 mph...that's why I mentioned what I did. If she kept a low forward speed over land like that, it could signficantly diminish her windspeeds before she emerges in the Gulf. However, with conditions being so favorable in the warm Gulf waters for intensification, she could still be a signifcant problem even then.

You make a very good point about current track speed... Good constructive discussion. Thanks BBear.

Hey, I'm an amateur too. So don't listen to what I say. I may be completely wrong.

[Pebbles]

You make a very good point about current track speed... Good constructive discussion. Thanks BBear. [/quote]

Hey, I'm an amateur too. So don't listen to what I say. I may be completely wrong. [/quote]

Hey how we learn right!!! We wouldn't be here unless we wanted to learn and share our enthusiasm for the weather.

[LilNoles2004]

Should be a very interesting week or two ahead... I hope So. Florida is spared for many reasons... From the devastation they recently encountered to the fact that FSU is scheduled to play Miami on Labor Day....

[Nimbus]

Frances will have a much larger windfield than Andrew or charley. A high off the southeast coast would mean a fast forward speed WNW, and the highest SST's are just south of New Orleans.