GFS 12Z run coming in...some changes

[Air Force Met]

Decided I would post a little commentary on the changes b/w this mornings 12z run and yesterdays. All times are with the new run.

1) At 66 hours, there is no major change in the location of Frances. THe high to the north is stronger on the later run and it moves Gaston a little slower...not much. There is a better circulation forecasted with 98...and its just a little SW of the previous run.

2) At 78 hours, 98 is still hanging around...150 miles east of FLL...and this is a lot further SW than the old run. The ridge is a lot stronger...and extends further west than in the previous run.

3) At 96 hours, 98 still east of FLorida...and the ridge is stronger than on the previous run. It is also further west...and this is because it has 98 200 miles SW of where it was...which allows the ridge to be there. There is also a very pronounced upper low over east/central Texas that was not there on the previous run. Frances is still in about the same place....about 100 miles north of Hispanola.

4) No major changes at 120 hours...except Frances is a little more north...60 miles or so...and 98 is still off the FL coast. The high is well established and extends to south of NC.

5) At 138 hours...or Friday morning...Frances is about 140 miles NNW of where it was...and the ridge has a different shape to it. The center of the hi is now sitting SE of HAtteras...when it was more over the GOM. The trough is still over TX and this is a little bit stronger than on the other run.

6) BY 150 hours...Frances is sitting about 150 miles ESE of Miami. THe ridge is more established off the east coast instead of the NE GOM. This should steer Frances more WNW than west.

I will post more later...I have to run for a few hours. The run will most certainly be completed before I get back...so somebody please feel free to carry on the comparison.

[Air Force Met]

All you SO FL people take a look at 174 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

[chris_fit]

[Pebbles]

*takes a sip of coffee and then chokes at the model!* Hope it's wrong.

[jlauderdal]

All you SO FL people take a look at 174 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

and when was the last time 174 gfs with a trop system verified?

[WeatherEmperor]

That......is disturbing to say the least.

<RICKY>

[mf_dolphin]

If that verifies it won't be much of a Labor Day week-end for S Florida.

[GulfBreezer]

That is a very scary visual, I just pray that it is wrong! Not only does that mean that S. Fl. could be very badly impacted, it also means another run in the GOM.............

[ameriwx2003]

AFM.. yes the GFS has come back to the North somewhat with its track and the EURO and UKMET are moving more West so far with each run. Maybe a agreement between the models are coming about.. One has to wonder what the He*l September will bring after such a busy August:):)

[Air Force Met]

All you SO FL people take a look at 174 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

and when was the last time 174 gfs with a trop system verified?

Since they made some adjustments...and when it is consistant...its not that far off. You have to remember...it is not looking at where the storm is per say...like a tropical model...it is looking at synoptic patters. And it is pretty good at that 8 days away.

[Skywatch_NC]

Areas like Ft. Myers, Naples, etc., that were in the TOO "close for comfort" zone w/ Charley, too.

Eric

[Pebbles]

Why that really disturbs me is not only cause FL gets wacked..but you can almost bet that it will slip over that little bit of florida and set it's targets on somewhere along the gulf coast without losing too much steam in the process.

Edit: Sorry Gulfbreezer...posted the same thought at the same time you did!

[jlauderdal]

All you SO FL people take a look at 174 hours...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174m.gif

and when was the last time 174 gfs with a trop system verified?

Since they made some adjustments...and when it is consistant...its not that far off. You have to remember...it is not looking at where the storm is per say...like a tropical model...it is looking at synoptic patters. And it is pretty good at that 8 days away.

your full of good news today. well i must say this firecast is looking very straightforward considering the synoptic pattern setting up...when there is one big dominant high and nothing else it really sint rocket science

[B-Bear]

Why that really disturbs me is not only cause FL gets wacked..but you can almost bet that it will slip over that little bit of florida and set it's targets on somewhere along the gulf coast without losing too much steam in the process.

Edit: Sorry Gulfbreezer...posted the same thought at the same time you did!

That last part of your statement is VERY hard to predict. Sometimes these storms can go right across the penninsula without so much as a hiccup. Other times the landfall knocks the wind right out of them (pun intended).

[Rainband]

If that verifies it won't be much of a Labor Day week-end for S Florida.

Or us it it move north

[cinlfla]

Or us it it move north

Is this possible the move some to the north or is this new model output wrote in stone.

[Rainband]

Or us it it move north

Is this possible the move some to the north or is this new model output wrote in stone.

With the tropics almost anything is possible, thats why I am watching this closely. I am not too sure it will happen because the models seem to be trending south...time will tell.

[Weatherboy1]

is that it appears that Gaston and the area of disturbed weather SW of Bermuda are starting to move as forecast -- W and NW. This is absolutely key to determining if Frances impacts places further South (like FL and the NE Gulf) or North (like SC/NC). If this motion continues into tomorrow, then here in South FL, things are going to start getting really dicey.

[Pebbles]

Why that really disturbs me is not only cause FL gets wacked..but you can almost bet that it will slip over that little bit of florida and set it's targets on somewhere along the gulf coast without losing too much steam in the process.

Edit: Sorry Gulfbreezer...posted the same thought at the same time you did!

That last part of your statement is VERY hard to predict. Sometimes these storms can go right across the penninsula without so much as a hiccup. Other times the landfall knocks the wind right out of them (pun intended).

Yes that is true....but if..and we know this is all speculation at this point..and stressing I am NOT even a very experienced amature mightest well a pro at tropics....but if this happened to pan out and tracks along the very lower tip of florida instead of a hundred miles or more further north...the impacts of land would probably be allot less...no? Look how little Charley's track over cuba effected it. In fact Charley looked to be intensifying over land due to what stage of development it was in.

[B-Bear]

Why that really disturbs me is not only cause FL gets wacked..but you can almost bet that it will slip over that little bit of florida and set it's targets on somewhere along the gulf coast without losing too much steam in the process.

Edit: Sorry Gulfbreezer...posted the same thought at the same time you did!

That last part of your statement is VERY hard to predict. Sometimes these storms can go right across the penninsula without so much as a hiccup. Other times the landfall knocks the wind right out of them (pun intended).

Yes that is true....but if..and we know this is all speculation at this point..and stressing I am NOT even a very experienced amature mightest well a pro at tropics....but if this happened to pan out and tracks along the very lower tip of florida instead of a hundred miles or more further north...the impacts of land would probably be allot less...no? Look how little Charley's track over cuba effected it. In fact Charley looked to be intensifying over land due to what stage of development it was in.

Well if it just skirts the land then it seems unlikely to affect the intensity much. But if it makes true landfall, then I would think the forward speed of the storm would determine how much intensity was affected. Right now she is only moving about 9 mph...that's why I mentioned what I did. If she kept a low forward speed over land like that, it could signficantly diminish her windspeeds before she emerges in the Gulf. However, with conditions being so favorable in the warm Gulf waters for intensification, she could still be a signifcant problem even then.