Cat 5 Possible

#1 Postby **hurricanemike** » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:46 pm

From 2300 Discussion:

Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over
increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model
continues to keep Frances a major hurricane for the next five days.
There will likely be several fluctuations...as mentioned above...in
the intensity over this period of time...but category four
intensity seems likely some time during that period...and category
5 strength is even possible.

LaBreeze · #2 Postby **LaBreeze** » Fri Aug 27, 2004 9:54 pm

At what point do you think she will reach Cat. 5, hurricanemike?

#3 Postby **hurricanemike** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:16 am

More Likely near the Bahamas where the water is very warm!

#4 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:22 am

Lets just pray that this never happens. It would scare a lot of people crazy considering its forecast close proximity to the US east coast.

<RICKY>

#5 Postby **Lowpressure** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:25 am

Coming in at that angle would be similar to Floyds approach when evacs where ordered from the Keys to the OBX.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:28 am

At this moment any type of intensification is possible, Frances looks great on satellite images and I think it has a shot of Cat. 5.

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:29 am

hurricanemike wrote:More Likely near the Bahamas where the water is very warm!

Yes.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

#8 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:12 am

Please no... Isabel was enough of a scare last year. At least there is only a 10% chance....

Benlanka · #9 Postby **Benlanka** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:15 am

I am new to these charts but aren't these charts statisticly derived and do they actually ever show a say... 20% or more chance of category 5 that far out? Personally I think Frances could reach category five without much effort.

#10 Postby **KBBOCA** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:41 am

Hoping and praying Frances will do an "Isabel" and strut her stuff far out at sea, and then weaken dramatically before (IF) she makes landfall. Even better would be for her to be a beautiful big FISH.

#11 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:44 am

KBBOCA wrote:Hoping and praying Frances will do an "Isabel" and strut her stuff far out at sea, and then weaken dramatically before (IF) she makes landfall. Even better would be for her to be a beautiful big FISH.

Ditto 100%!!!

LCfromFL · #12 Postby **LCfromFL** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:33 pm

Hey Mike - it seems that most eyes are looking at S FL - with a few at the Carolinas. With us smack dab between the two, what are your thoughts for us? Do you see this as a 'one or the other' type situation? Where it will stay west and low and smack S FL or turn ala Floyd?

Cat 5 Possible

Cat 5 Possible

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