Frances Advisories

[PurdueWx80]

If any of you remember those amazing pics of Isabel with 4-5 small vortices w/i her eye, particularly when she was a Cat 4 and 5, then you will be a little more worried when you see the latest shots of Frances. The eye is smaller than Isabel's was, but you can still see approximately 4 now that the eye has mostly cleared out. Check out http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html and zoom in on her. Appears another rapid development cycle has begun.

[ColdFront77]

Even Frances' first landfall is difficult to pinpoint and will be for several more days, really; and even when the system is not too terribly far away from the coast.

[btsgmdad]

This storm continues to get revved up. That track continues to remind me more and more of Andrew. Particularly with more of the models taking the storm into the GOM.

[KatDaddy]

...EAST...
XPCT THE E TO DRY OUT ON DAY 4/WED AS THE CDFNT PUSHES T.D. 7/T.S.
GASTON OFFSHORE. HRCN FRANCES WILL THREATEN THE
ANTILLES/BAHAMAS/FLORIDA AND POSSIBLY NWD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD.HAVE ADJUSTED DEPICTION OF HURCN FRANCES NWD FROM NITE
PRELIMS MORE INTO FL WITH A MORE NWD OR RIGHT TRACK OF
ECMWF/UKMET/06Z GFDL/CANADIAN AND NOGAPS WHICH ARE ALL NWD OF THE
GFS RUNS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS/NORMAL LOW TRACK SKILL AT LONGER
RANGE AND A VERY STRONG HURCN CREATING ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT
INDICATE LOW CONFIDENCE ON POSITIONING AND TIMING FOR DAYS 6 AND 7FRI/SAT. SEE NHC BULLETINS ON HURCN FRANCES.

[Stratosphere747]

This seems to be pushing it more towards the EC than the Gulf..

[btsgmdad]

Very scary! We have heard this statement before with some of the Super Hurricanes (i.e. Gilbert, Mitch). These
storms are extremely difficult to forecast tracks on since they go where they want, when they want. Just remember, it's never too early to prepare (:

[Guest]

nice update. very informative.

[Josephine96]

True.. never too early.. especially here in Central Florida where we just went through Charley

[Josephine96]

It does look like it may make a beeline for South Florida or even the southern part of the peninsula

[Air Force Met]

This seems to be pushing it more towards the EC than the Gulf..

NOt really...they are just covering their butts by making everyone under the gun.

[ColdFront77]

Why would a low south of Bermuda cause a more northerly movement to a system east
of Puerto Rico, if a Bermuda High would also move the cyclone more northward, as well?

[jlauderdal]

Here is my latest analysis and forecast on hurricane Frances (next update will be this evening).

Latest forecast:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

Analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 ... myThoughts

now did you really have to use fort lauderdale in your forecast..why not miami or west palm beach

[Lindaloo]

argggggggggggg

I second that!!

[Lowpressure]

It does remind me of those photos from Isabel. Agreed that a strengthening phase is under way.

[Derek Ortt]

because it would weaken the ridge slightly, in all liklihood, allowing for a lightly more northerly motion

[goodlife]

just keep the damned thing away from New Orleans...............please?

[Stratosphere747]

Good point AFM...Being on the upper Texas coast *And yes I know that we should not focus on the long range models*
It just seems as if a few keep pointing on Frances getting in the gulf...

Quick question AFM

I know the HPC takes over forecasts for tropical systems after they are no longer deemed *tropical* What is the difference between the HPC and NWC?? Is it just tropical??

[Pebbles]

Your post was the first thing seen this AM...some posts about Isabel and her 'spokes' yesterday. Not surprised to see it on this storm..but am because it's so soon. ECK...I am too groggy eyed to make sense yet..need coffee.

[Kennethb]

She's still too far away to determine what if any landfall. With one or perhaps other tropical systems in the same vicinity, all bets are off.

Could be a butterfly effect of one person in an island in the Pacific that sneezes and causes a chain reaction that ultimately affects the actual path.

Its late August so just about scenerio is possible.

[Air Force Met]

Good point AFM...Being on the upper Texas coast *And yes I know that we should not focus on the long range models*
It just seems as if a few keep pointing on Frances getting in the gulf...

Quick question AFM

I know the HPC takes over forecasts for tropical systems after they are no longer deemed *tropical* What is the difference between the HPC and NWC?? Is it just tropical??

They are all part of NOAA...they are just different divisions. TPC/NHC does the obvious. HPC is more into precip/winter weather/long range forecasting. They kinda put out an overview forecast that the local offices can draw from.