Frances Advisories
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SouthernWx
Frank P wrote:Interesting.... the GFS 00 run shows it somewhat south of your prediction.... Do you think Frances will enter the GOM and make a second landfall as the GFS is indicating???
My current theory is yes...but at this range, there's no way to know where a second landfall would occur. I utilize the GFS and ECMWF global models from 120 to 168 hours...seven days is the operational limit of the EURO, and the GFS is not very accurate beyond the 168-180 hour period.
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Brent
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11am Frances-120 mph winds
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 15
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 28, 2004
...Frances slows down while strengthening slightly...
interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 51.9 west or about 740 miles
...1190 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this motion is forecast to continue today...with a gradual turn
to the west-northwest expected by tonight or Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Frances could become a category four hurricane later by Sunday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb...28.29 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...17.4 N... 51.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 958 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 28, 2004
...Frances slows down while strengthening slightly...
interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.
At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 51.9 west or about 740 miles
...1190 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr...
and this motion is forecast to continue today...with a gradual turn
to the west-northwest expected by tonight or Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and Frances could become a category four hurricane later by Sunday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb...28.29 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...17.4 N... 51.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 958 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 5 PM AST.
Forecaster Stewart
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#neversummer
. Good job.
11:00AM Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances
Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances
11:00AM EDT 8/28/2004
...Although the format is the same there are major content changes in many places...
CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
Currently...Frances seems to have gained a little additional westward movement...but offically is still moving to the northwest with a turn back to the west-northwest expected to begin later today or tonight. Although the hurricane is more or less at the same latitude as Puerto Rico...residents of the islands of the North East Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.
Frances is now a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. Overnight...the eye became ragged and assymetricial while probably going through an eyewall replacement cycle...very common for strong hurricanes...however...the inner core has reorganized with a larger eye...and Frances is likely resuming another period of intensification. Category four intensity is possible later today. Further down the road...although changes in intensity are difficult to predict...overall intensity will begin to fluctuate soon...but Frances could become a Category 5 hurricane sometime within the next five days.
5 DAY FORECAST MOTION
Unfortunately there are no major changes in any of the track reasoning this morning. Overall the global models have converged on a track that takes Frances to the west-northwest...then westward...for the entire forecast period. Only the Navy NOGAPS model is suggesting that Frances will continue moving NW...but even that model shows some westward movement beginning soon.
The system currently located near Bermuda is expected to move to the west over the next 3 days or so. At this time significant intensification is not expected. However...neither this system...nor newly-developed Tropical Storm Gaston...which is expected to move inland over NC/SC in a couple of days...are expected to have any direct impact on the track of Frances. These systems will be too far removed...and in fact have been modeled/represented in the GFS and UKMET guidance in some form over the past few days. These features are expected to clear out of the pattern well in advance of Frances. It's important to note that these systems are 2000 miles away from Frances at the present time.
EXTENDED MOTION
Beyond 5 days...of course...forecast errors are quite high. However...there are no real changes in the extended guidance. The 00Z and 06Z GFS continue to look like reruns of the previous model runs and suggest that Frances will come west for some time to come. Last night's 00Z European model has back off the idea that the far western extent of the 500MB ridge will erode...and resumes placing a well-developed deep layer warm ridge to the north of Frances. This leaves only the NOGAPS model suggesting a more northerly course...in fact this model believes that Frances may miss the US East Coast all together...but this seems unlikely as the NOGAPS develops a suspect-looking 500MB trough and brings it through the Atlantic in the extended period.
Also...the TPC plans to fly research and surveillance missions in the environment north of Frances starting on Sunday evening. This will provide the models with some additional data and the forecasts from these models should be more accurate as a result. On average...forecast track errors with the additional data are 30% less than when the models run without this information.
In any case...a possible threat to the US east coast seems very possible. It is too early to tell where...specifically. This system COULD pass into the gulf if it crosses Florida south of 28N...but that is a LONG way off. Of course...if the models continue to trend westward then a Gulf impact seems more likely...but it is much to early to speculate on where along the Gulf coast could be threatened.
MISC QUESTIONS
Q: I live in (ANY CITY) and our meteorologist thinks the system is coming here...what should I do?
A: This far out...landfall points are guesswork. We have plenty of time to watch this system...you should go ahead and do everything you should have done at the beginning of the year...including getting your hurricane plan and supplies together. From there...no additional action is needed before a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area...unless there are things you should have already done still left to do.
Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appears this could be another 7 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.
I will update or replace this update around 4PM today. Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.
MW
11:00AM EDT 8/28/2004
...Although the format is the same there are major content changes in many places...
CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT
Currently...Frances seems to have gained a little additional westward movement...but offically is still moving to the northwest with a turn back to the west-northwest expected to begin later today or tonight. Although the hurricane is more or less at the same latitude as Puerto Rico...residents of the islands of the North East Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane.
Frances is now a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale. Overnight...the eye became ragged and assymetricial while probably going through an eyewall replacement cycle...very common for strong hurricanes...however...the inner core has reorganized with a larger eye...and Frances is likely resuming another period of intensification. Category four intensity is possible later today. Further down the road...although changes in intensity are difficult to predict...overall intensity will begin to fluctuate soon...but Frances could become a Category 5 hurricane sometime within the next five days.
5 DAY FORECAST MOTION
Unfortunately there are no major changes in any of the track reasoning this morning. Overall the global models have converged on a track that takes Frances to the west-northwest...then westward...for the entire forecast period. Only the Navy NOGAPS model is suggesting that Frances will continue moving NW...but even that model shows some westward movement beginning soon.
The system currently located near Bermuda is expected to move to the west over the next 3 days or so. At this time significant intensification is not expected. However...neither this system...nor newly-developed Tropical Storm Gaston...which is expected to move inland over NC/SC in a couple of days...are expected to have any direct impact on the track of Frances. These systems will be too far removed...and in fact have been modeled/represented in the GFS and UKMET guidance in some form over the past few days. These features are expected to clear out of the pattern well in advance of Frances. It's important to note that these systems are 2000 miles away from Frances at the present time.
EXTENDED MOTION
Beyond 5 days...of course...forecast errors are quite high. However...there are no real changes in the extended guidance. The 00Z and 06Z GFS continue to look like reruns of the previous model runs and suggest that Frances will come west for some time to come. Last night's 00Z European model has back off the idea that the far western extent of the 500MB ridge will erode...and resumes placing a well-developed deep layer warm ridge to the north of Frances. This leaves only the NOGAPS model suggesting a more northerly course...in fact this model believes that Frances may miss the US East Coast all together...but this seems unlikely as the NOGAPS develops a suspect-looking 500MB trough and brings it through the Atlantic in the extended period.
Also...the TPC plans to fly research and surveillance missions in the environment north of Frances starting on Sunday evening. This will provide the models with some additional data and the forecasts from these models should be more accurate as a result. On average...forecast track errors with the additional data are 30% less than when the models run without this information.
In any case...a possible threat to the US east coast seems very possible. It is too early to tell where...specifically. This system COULD pass into the gulf if it crosses Florida south of 28N...but that is a LONG way off. Of course...if the models continue to trend westward then a Gulf impact seems more likely...but it is much to early to speculate on where along the Gulf coast could be threatened.
MISC QUESTIONS
Q: I live in (ANY CITY) and our meteorologist thinks the system is coming here...what should I do?
A: This far out...landfall points are guesswork. We have plenty of time to watch this system...you should go ahead and do everything you should have done at the beginning of the year...including getting your hurricane plan and supplies together. From there...no additional action is needed before a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area...unless there are things you should have already done still left to do.
Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appears this could be another 7 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.
I will update or replace this update around 4PM today. Of course...other Storm2K forecasters may tack on to this update as well.
MW
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Updating on the twitter now: http://www.twitter.com/@watkinstrack
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adelphi_sky
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Brent
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Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 15
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2004
based on SSMI and AMSU microwave and visible satellite data this
morning...it appears that Frances has completed an eyewall
replacement cycle. The eye has cleared out now and has increased to
at least a 20 nmi diameter. The initial intensity has been
increased slightly to 105 kt based on a Dvorak intensity estimate
of t5.5...or 102 kt from TAFB for the past 18 hr...a 3-hr ODT
average of t5.6...or 105 kt...and the improved eye appearance.
The initial motion is 310/08. Frances remains on track and is
expected to resume a more west-northwestward motion at a slightly
faster speed later today. NHC model guidance is in strong agreement
through 72 hours on Frances taking a west-northwestward track
through 48 hours and then bending more westward in 48-72hr. However
...The models diverge due to the way they handle now Tropical Storm
Gaston off the South Carolina coast. The GFS...UKMET...and the
Canadian models lift Gaston slowly northward through 48 hr...and
then rapidly northeastward by 96 hr and has Gaston out of the
picture by 120 hr. The subtropical ridge then builds in between
Gaston and Frances...which would help to keep Frances on a
west-northwest to westward track. In contrast...the GFDL and NOGAPS
models leave a weak mid-level trough behind along the southeastern
U.S. Coast in the wake of Gaston. This allows Frances to turn
northwestward by 96hr well east of the Bahamas. The official
forecast track leans closely toward the GFS-UKMET-Canadian solution
given that the mid- and upper-level flow pattern is forecast to
become highly zonal across the northern U.S...which should allow the
subtropical ridge to build westward across the southeastern U.S. And
eastern Atlantic to the north of Frances throughout the period.
Now that Frances has completed an eyewall replacement cycle...at
least steady intensification should resume since the upper-level
outflow has continued to expand and become more circular. A
poleward outflow channel has also developed to the north. The
favorable upper-level environment combined with only warm water...
up to 29c SST...ahead of Frances should allow the hurricane to
reach at least category 4 strength in the next 24 hours or so.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/1500z 17.4n 51.9w 105 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 18.3n 53.3w 110 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 19.3n 55.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 20.1n 57.4w 120 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 20.5n 59.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 31/1200z 21.3n 64.6w 120 kt
96hr VT 01/1200z 22.0n 69.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 02/1200z 23.0n 73.0w 120 kt
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 28, 2004
based on SSMI and AMSU microwave and visible satellite data this
morning...it appears that Frances has completed an eyewall
replacement cycle. The eye has cleared out now and has increased to
at least a 20 nmi diameter. The initial intensity has been
increased slightly to 105 kt based on a Dvorak intensity estimate
of t5.5...or 102 kt from TAFB for the past 18 hr...a 3-hr ODT
average of t5.6...or 105 kt...and the improved eye appearance.
The initial motion is 310/08. Frances remains on track and is
expected to resume a more west-northwestward motion at a slightly
faster speed later today. NHC model guidance is in strong agreement
through 72 hours on Frances taking a west-northwestward track
through 48 hours and then bending more westward in 48-72hr. However
...The models diverge due to the way they handle now Tropical Storm
Gaston off the South Carolina coast. The GFS...UKMET...and the
Canadian models lift Gaston slowly northward through 48 hr...and
then rapidly northeastward by 96 hr and has Gaston out of the
picture by 120 hr. The subtropical ridge then builds in between
Gaston and Frances...which would help to keep Frances on a
west-northwest to westward track. In contrast...the GFDL and NOGAPS
models leave a weak mid-level trough behind along the southeastern
U.S. Coast in the wake of Gaston. This allows Frances to turn
northwestward by 96hr well east of the Bahamas. The official
forecast track leans closely toward the GFS-UKMET-Canadian solution
given that the mid- and upper-level flow pattern is forecast to
become highly zonal across the northern U.S...which should allow the
subtropical ridge to build westward across the southeastern U.S. And
eastern Atlantic to the north of Frances throughout the period.
Now that Frances has completed an eyewall replacement cycle...at
least steady intensification should resume since the upper-level
outflow has continued to expand and become more circular. A
poleward outflow channel has also developed to the north. The
favorable upper-level environment combined with only warm water...
up to 29c SST...ahead of Frances should allow the hurricane to
reach at least category 4 strength in the next 24 hours or so.
Forecaster Stewart
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/1500z 17.4n 51.9w 105 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 18.3n 53.3w 110 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 19.3n 55.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 20.1n 57.4w 120 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 20.5n 59.7w 120 kt
72hr VT 31/1200z 21.3n 64.6w 120 kt
96hr VT 01/1200z 22.0n 69.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 02/1200z 23.0n 73.0w 120 kt
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#neversummer
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