Northern islands almost out of direct impact

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 6:59 am

Never say never in the tropics but it looks more and more than the northern islands including the northern leewards,the virgin islands and Puerto Rico will be out of a potential direct landfall.As it nears 18.0n the latitud of the islands the direct threat lessens.But when it passes that 18 line to 19 then we will breath more easy.However still we have to watch how far to the north Frances will pass and that is the only issue for us.Any deviation to the west more quickly than expected will have the hurricane pass a little more closer.So let's continue to watch how that eye is moving today and let's see if we can say ADIOS to France from the islands.

Cyclone Runner · #2 Postby **Cyclone Runner** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 7:02 am

¡Que ella viaje aun mas al norte!

El Australiano

BlizzardNole · #3 Postby **BlizzardNole** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:11 am

FRANCES: Vete mas al norte, ni PIENSES de tocar a esa isla hermosa!

I can't wait to go to Puerto Rico in December! Should be about 40 up here in MD when we leave.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:16 am

BlizzardNole wrote:FRANCES: Vete mas al norte, ni PIENSES de tocar a esa isla hermosa!

I can't wait to go to Puerto Rico in December! Should be about 40 up here in MD when we leave.

Bueno que vas a venir a esta hermosa isla y yo se que vas a disfrutar en grande.

Good that you will visit this beautiful island and I know that you will enjoy it and warm all the time in december.

caribepr · #5 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:18 am

Starting to feel a bit easier up here in America reading this and watching how she's going. A girlfriend from St. Croix is also up here with me for our friend's wake and she's been watching over my shoulder and is now a new devotee of storm2k and Mike's page!

BlizzardNole · #6 Postby **BlizzardNole** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:21 am

We are going to Isla Verde (staying at the InterContinental). We are PUMPED! Also, can't wait to eat at Ajilimojili Restaurant.

I still remember Hugo tracking across Vieques and NE Puerto Rico. Sickening.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:23 am

So you were here when Hugo?Yes that was a big one for us fortunnally it was the NE corner of the island which suffered and not the entire island like Georges did.

#8 Postby **msbee** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:00 am

LUis
In another thread, they are talking about the models and forecast indicating a more southward track than before.
does this mean more potential toruble for us and PR?
what do you think?

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:06 am

msbee wrote:LUis
In another thread, they are talking about the models and forecast indicating a more southward track than before.
does this mean more potential toruble for us and PR?
what do you think?

Barbara although the eye of that powerful hurricane will not cross thru our islands being the system so big in diameter 500 miles rain and gusty winds can be felt if the eye passes around 200 miles to our north.So any deviation to the left will be very important from now on and I hope it climbs more north beyond 20n and then we will be liberated from the fringe effects.

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:08 am

At this hour Frances continues to climb in latitud now very close to that 18.0n line our latitud which is great news for all the people who live in all the northern islands.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

CalmBeforeStorm · #11 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:11 am

cycloneye wrote:Never say never in the tropics but it looks more and more than the northern islands including the northern leewards,the virgin islands and Puerto Rico will be out of a potential direct landfall.As it nears 18.0n the latitud of the islands the direct threat lessens.But when it passes that 18 line to 19 then we will breath more easy.However still we have to watch how far to the north Frances will pass and that is the only issue for us.Any deviation to the west more quickly than expected will have the hurricane pass a little more closer.So let's continue to watch how that eye is moving today and let's see if we can say ADIOS to France from the islands.

With the 12z GFS still showing it VERY close to PR I would not breathe easy yet. This model has been very consistant over the past 3-4 days.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

#12 Postby **Pebbles** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:24 am

The more places She misses..the more happy I am!

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:27 am

Pebbles wrote:The more places She misses..the more happy I am!

Good thinking that I second 100% as we dont want a monster like this to go anywhere and stay out to sea.

BlizzardNole · #14 Postby **BlizzardNole** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:37 am

I was not in PR when Hugo hit (I was at Florida State University)...I remember all the pictures of damage in the news. I had spent the Christmas of 1985 there and remembered how nice it was there.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:44 am

BlizzardNole wrote:I was not in PR when Hugo hit (I was at Florida State University)...I remember all the pictures of damage in the news. I had spent the Christmas of 1985 there and remembered how nice it was there.

Ok good.

#16 Postby **msbee** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:13 pm

I won't be relaxed until she is at 20N at least
so far so good though
keeping my fingers crossed

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:55 pm

Already Frances is almost at 18n so it is due east of the northern islands.

cape_escape · #18 Postby **cape_escape** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:56 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Pebbles wrote:The more places She misses..the more happy I am!

Good thinking that I second 100% as we dont want a monster like this to go anywhere and stay out to sea.

Ditto! and Ditto!

schmita · #19 Postby **schmita** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:23 pm

Hey Luis,
Let me get this straight. With luck, Frances will pass us at 19N, about 200 miles away. Frances is 500 miles wide. So we will get some weather right? More than a little? Less than alot!!

Thanks
irina

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:25 pm

Yes some bad weather not the extreme bad weather.

Northern islands almost out of direct impact

Northern islands almost out of direct impact

Re: Northern islands almost out of direct impact

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