Quick Hits....GFDL and UKMET

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:51 am

The 00z GFDL has ended up a little left...by 120 nautical miles...of it's previous run...bringing Frances to 25/71 in 5 days instead of 25/69 like the 18z called for.

UKMET Guidance is still not out but should be any minute now...will update as soon as possible...

MW

JTD · #2 Postby **JTD** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:54 am

They out Mike?

#3 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:01 am

The UKMET...unfortunately...is left again...with Frances in the Central Bahamas and heading mostly westward in 6-7 days...more or less right on top of the most recent TPC guidance...also worth noting that the latest 3 images from meteosat suggest movement near 290 instead of 305...but of course it's hard to tell if it's wobbles or the turn back to wnw:

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 28.08.2004 16.2N 50.1W MODERATE
12UTC 28.08.2004 17.2N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2004 18.7N 53.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2004 19.8N 55.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2004 20.6N 57.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2004 20.6N 60.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2004 21.1N 62.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2004 21.2N 65.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2004 21.8N 68.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2004 22.7N 70.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2004 23.5N 72.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2004 24.4N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2004 25.4N 76.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

MW

#4 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:06 am

Just a quik update of how far left the latest UKMET run is...look at the 00Z v. 12Z (yesterday) positions are for 9/2/2004 at 00Z:

New: 12UTC 02.09.2004 24.4N 74.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12 hours ago: 12UTC 02.09.2004 24.4N 72.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

Or 120 nautical miles due west from the previous run. Told ya these would be quick.

MW

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:15 am

It would be really neat to see all the model data from the very first run to the the very last run... to see how they all changed in time.

Agua · #6 Postby **Agua** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:34 am

ColdFront77 wrote:It would be really neat to see all the model data from the very first run to the the very last run... to see how they all changed in time.

Some site had an animation of several models depicting that. It looked like one of those "cat of nine tails" things flailing about until they all converged near landfall.

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:38 am

I would like to see it, perhaps it could be posted in this thread for all to see... and continually as each run is added the existed ones.

#8 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:41 am

BTW the 0Z NOGAPS is on crack I think.

It develops a fairly significant 500MB trough that the other models are not seeing...this is likely what is causing the CONUS model to have a rightward bias and looks very suspect given the current synoptic pattern.

MW

#9 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:46 am

One other thing then I'm off to bed...meteosat imagery as of 6Z suggests that Frances is probably starting to re-intensify.

MW

Quick Hits....GFDL and UKMET

Quick Hits....GFDL and UKMET

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