Frances Advisories

[BayouVenteux]

it does seem that GFS has taken the same track recently for the past few runs...

Thats not a good sign for us in south fla, and those in the gulf. Esp. LA... GFS seems to have it out for you.

This sounds sort of like andrew all over again

Respectfully, I must say, that if at 252 hours, the loooooooong range GooFuS is showing a SE Louisiana landfall, then everyone from the Outer Banks to Narragansett needs to watch Frances carefully!

[Hurricane Cheese]

Alright, we're a day closer to a potential US landfall and I already have read rumblings about the media hype building over Frances.

So I'm very curious as to hear what local mets from the east and gulf coasts are saying about Frances tonight with the information they now know?

So please post comments from what you've heard your local mets say today/tonight!

[WeatherEmperor]

Actually if you look at the latest UKMET it takes Frances to the north Bahamas and just off the South Florida coast.

<RICKY>

[ericinmia]

it does seem that GFS has taken the same track recently for the past few runs...

Thats not a good sign for us in south fla, and those in the gulf. Esp. LA... GFS seems to have it out for you.

This sounds sort of like andrew all over again

Respectfully, I must say, that if at 252 hours, the loooooooong range GooFuS is showing a SE Louisiana landfall, then everyone from the Outer Banks to Narragansett needs to watch Frances carefully!

I agree, however... with gfs you need to watch the trends and it has been trending this same way for a few runs now. If it continues this way a few more runs it something worthy to note, because as you stated it is know to bounce all around.

-Eric

[LaBreeze]

Most mets around here are not too concerned. They are concentrating more on when or if the next front will make it down here. Of course, as a resident of the coast I do believe in the saying, "Never turn your back to the sea."

[MWatkins]

Yep...hate to type this..but the 0Z European model is back to a fairly strong WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge) with Frances coming west and in the central Bahamas by next weekend.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 4082800!!/

Been waiting all night to see if the previous 12Z turn was a phantom or for real...looks like we're back to a close encounter with the Florida east coast...would have liked to see the model shift more...oh...fishward...but no dice.

MW

[WeatherEmperor]

Mike, get some rest for cryin out loud. You have been working too hard these past few days. Go to sleep, wake up nice and fresh in the morning. We can handle things for a while. lol

<RICKY>

[MWatkins]

Mike, get some rest for cryin out loud. You have been working too hard these past few days. Go to sleep, wake up nice and fresh in the morning. We can handle things for a while. lol

<RICKY>

LOL...I suppose you're right...off to bed now...see you again after the 11:00 am advisory package.

Was waiting for the dang euro model to publish...lost track of time.

MW

[ericinmia]

yeah I'm in charge!!!!!!





WERE ALL GOING TO DIE!







lol, i am loosing it, and need sleep too...
I hope to wakeup to something better than i'm seeing tonight!

-Eric

[ericinmia]

"Never turn your back to the sea."

its got to be a funny sight whatching you leave the beach...

-Eric

[Aquawind]

Well said Emperor..Sleep well MW and eric..Heck I just got up from 5 hours of dreamland..the dang pooping puppy strikes again..But I had to check things out..

[LaBreeze]

Just a saying - it comes from many years of living along the coast and having respect for the GOM.

[HurricaneJim]

"Alright, we're a day closer to a potential US landfall and I already have read rumblings about the media hype building over Frances."

Well, there's a CAT 3 out there and it's headed this way.

Considering how unprepared a lot of people in S. Florida were for Charlie, hype might just be in the public interest right about now.

Being prepared for an event like this isn't just for those in "the projected path of the storm" because these things twist and turn all over the place. As ti stands now, "potential" landfalls could include everything from Cuba to the Carolinas.

i don't want to be the guy who goes to Wal Mart three days before the storm to find out they're out of batteries.

It's pretty obvious this thing is coming and it's going to hit something. Downplaying it isn't helping anyone. I'd be putting out a Preparedness Alert for pretty much the SE US.

[Rainband]

"Alright, we're a day closer to a potential US landfall and I already have read rumblings about the media hype building over Frances."

Well, there's a CAT 3 out there and it's headed this way.

Considering how unprepared a lot of people in S. Florida were for Charlie, hype might just be in the public interest right about now.

Being prepared for an event like this isn't just for those in "the projected path of the storm" because these things twist and turn all over the place. As ti stands now, "potential" landfalls could include everything from Cuba to the Carolinas.

i don't want to be the guy who goes to Wal Mart three days before the storm to find out they're out of batteries.

It's pretty obvious this thing is coming and it's going to hit something. Downplaying it isn't helping anyone. I'd be putting out a Preparedness Alert for pretty much the SE US.

Excellent Post

[Anonymous]

NWS Melbourne---

NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE FRANCES CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.

NWS MIami

PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON
HURRICANE FRANCES.

NWS Tampa

THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANCES
INFLUENCES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY GENERATING
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND EAST COAST THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE
CENTER OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED NEAR EASTERN CUBA.

NWS Key West

BY LATE WEDNESDAY...HURRICANE FRANCES IS
FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE IS MUCH LESS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN
THESE LAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN MEDIUM-RANGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PREDICTION...AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. CHECK FORECASTS AND
DISCUSSIONS REGULARLY FOR UPDATES.

[Benlanka]

TD7 will be moving away three days before Frances arrives. Then Frances...

The UKMET-00Z suggests that Frances will probably be moving more or less over or along the Florida coast:


The GEM-00Z suggests it will be moving along the coast and make landfall in SC:


And finally the GFS-00Z suggest it will move into the Gulf of Mexico:


Looks like the strength of the ridge is closely going to determine which way Frances will head. Still much uncertainty as well.

[ColdFront77]

The GFS model will have to continue to trend for days to come in order for it to stay "the most consistent."

The other models (even those that are the least reliable) are also changing and shouldn't totally be discounted, or they shouldn't exist.

[Anonymous]

So consensus is... South Carolina, Florida, Or the Gomex... All tropical models say Bahamas as far as they can see---If you were in Vegas betting the odds, where would you place your money?

[Aquawind]

Well the GFS looks a little to far south...imho Although with Frances riding the islands it should keep the intensity down..A little to the north and it could be disaster..Lotsa time for the US mainland..

Could be multiple US Landfalls from Frances.

[TS Zack]

All models have pretty much gone with that Westward track now. My bet is horrible Florida I should say again, thereafter Gulf Of Mexico.