Canadian Model Run an interesting "outlier" . . .

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WeatherNole
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Canadian Model Run an interesting "outlier" . . .

#1 Postby WeatherNole » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:02 am

Is this a one-time anomaly, or is it picking up on something? If we see any kind of trends from other models to move in this direction the next few days, it could well be on to something. As an aside - some of the "best minds" at FSU's Met Dept. are leaning this way too. We shall see.

Mike

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More . . . .

#2 Postby WeatherNole » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:05 am

And here's the 192 hour forecast.

Mike

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#3 Postby ericinmia » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:08 am

Hmm looks interesting, thanks for the graphics...

One way or another this storm is going to ruin someones decade.

-Eric
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#4 Postby MWatkins » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:14 am

If the Canadian verifies then the forward speed of Frances will be much faster than depicted by the GFS....perhaps fast enough to catch a lingering weakness in the steering flow that the GFS has franses missing.

Funny...the CMC operational model was frequently an outlier during Isabel amoungst the CMC ensembles.

MW
Last edited by MWatkins on Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#5 Postby btangy » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:15 am

That closed low over TN/KY at the 500mb level looks a bit suspect. The trough still looks rather flat in the east and the flow pretty much zonal, so the northward motion may be caused by that low eroding the ridge, which may dissapear in subsequent runs.
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#6 Postby cape_escape » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:20 am

Ok...so what does this mean? Sorry, I'm new to this.
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true . . .

#7 Postby WeatherNole » Sat Aug 28, 2004 12:26 am

btangy wrote:That closed low over TN/KY at the 500mb level looks a bit suspect. The trough still looks rather flat in the east and the flow pretty much zonal, so the northward motion may be caused by that low eroding the ridge, which may dissapear in subsequent runs.


". . in subsequent runs" is the key.

There is still PLENTY of time to look at this thing, BUT if the Canadian shows some continuity and IF the other models start trending more northerly, then it may be on to something.

Way too many "ifs" and "maybes" right now. Another day or two should shake out some better solutions.

Mike

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#8 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Aug 28, 2004 1:47 am

Gosh I am gonna be up all night tonight. I dont think ill be getting much sleep this weekend until I know for sure that this thing wont threaten south florida.

<RICKY>
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#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 3:19 am

You won't be getting much sleep into next week either... then.
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#10 Postby TS Zack » Sat Aug 28, 2004 3:25 am

All models have no shifted to a Westward track into the Bahamnas,, not good for South Florida or the GOM!
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#11 Postby obxhurricane » Sat Aug 28, 2004 3:25 am

The 144 hr position is almost the exact same as the 0Z 144 HR UK run.
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#12 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:49 am

Looks like after day 6 they don't want to commit to a landfall. The flow is zonal all the way to Chaba.
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Re: More . . . .

#13 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sat Aug 28, 2004 5:55 am

Just when I was starting to feel A LITTLE better.....Thanks, Guys :eek:


WeatherNole wrote:And here's the 192 hour forecast.

Mike

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