Brian Norcross at 11 p.m. Fri

[KeyLargoDave]

Summarizing his report at the top of the news:
Frances is far away, of course.
There's been a turn to the west already since the last position, but is it a turn, or just a wobble accompanying eyewall replacement? "We don't know."
It is still predicted to turn more westerly long-term as a mid-Atlantic high builds. When it starts to get near Florida, probably around Wednesday, in or near the Bahamas, there may be a next weakness in the high/between highs. If Frances is far south still, closer to cuba, the weakness might not be strong enough to influence it. If it's near the north of the probability cone then, it probably will get turned north by the weakness.
He also, interestingly, emphasized that the forecast track is not "an arrow pointing at Florida." Even though it looks like that now, when Frances is near the Bahamas, the forecast track could be pointing more toward the Carolinas.


Dave

[bigmike]

Historical models certainly support his analysis for what historical models are worth.

[jlauderdal]

Summarizing his report at the top of the news:
Frances is far away, of course.
There's been a turn to the west already since the last position, but is it a turn, or just a wobble accompanying eyewall replacement? "We don't know."
It is still predicted to turn more westerly long-term as a mid-Atlantic high builds. When it starts to get near Florida, probably around Wednesday, in or near the Bahamas, there may be a next weakness in the high/between highs. If Frances is far south still, closer to cuba, the weakness might not be strong enough to influence it. If it's near the north of the probability cone then, it probably will get turned north by the weakness.
He also, interestingly, emphasized that the forecast track is not "an arrow pointing at Florida." Even though it looks like that now, when Frances is near the Bahamas, the forecast track could be pointing more toward the Carolinas.


Dave

What weakness is he seeing next week. Anybody here see a weakness?

[KeyLargoDave]

What weakness is he seeing next week. Anybody here see a weakness?

He was using an animated weather graphic, not an actual model graphic, of course. It showed an Atlantic high ending well east of the Carolinas, and another high "cell" (technical term?) centered over the southeast, with a gap between them, for around Wednesday-Thursday.