Chaba strengthened again!
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HurricaneBill
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Chaba strengthened again!
Typhoon Chaba's sustained winds climbed back up from 115 to 130 mph. It's possible Chaba might hit Japan as a Category 3.
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Cyclone Runner
- Category 1
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Re: Chaba strengthened again!
HurricaneBill wrote:Typhoon Chaba's sustained winds climbed back up from 115 to 130 mph. It's possible Chaba might hit Japan as a Category 3.
Where are you getting this from?
The reasoning and the maps that I am looking at have only shown very slow weakening from Category 5 now at Category 3
WDPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W
/WARNING NR 38//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 280000Z0 AUG TO 020000Z2 SEP 2004.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 19W (CHABA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 272330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
102 AND 115 KNOTS.
B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE WESTERN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER A MAJOR
SHORT WAVE TROF NORTHEAST OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. THE EASTERN RIDGE
HAS BUILT WESTWARD CAUSING TY 19W TO TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWEST-
WARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, UKMET
EGRR, NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, WBAR, AND JTYM, ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
C. TY 19W WILL REMAIN A POTENT SYSTEM FOR QUITE SOME TIME AS IT
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE DUAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, TY 19W IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS POLEWARD AND ENCOUNTERS AN ENVIRONMENT
OF DRIER AIR FROM JAPAN AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 272227Z2 SSMI SATELLITE PASS.
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A LARGE SIZED
SYSTEM.
E. THE EXTENDED FORECAST CALLS FOR TY 19W TO LINK UP WITH A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/MENEBROKER/FUNK//
NNNN
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