Frances Advisories

[Dean4Storms]

She doesn't look all that great tonight, her tops are warming and her wig on the western periphery is bumping against some SW shear (note the flat look to her western UL outflow). On top of all that, she did up her eye make-up and her eye got bigger. A scary woman not unlike the wife when she's mad!!

[Derek Ortt]

Those warming cloud tops appear t be due to the eye replacement (this is quite typical to see a dramatic deterioration in the structure during the cycle)

[Anonymous]

looking at the latest satelite loops....and appears to be refiring as the eye is now more pronounced and even larger than it was before.

NHC is right on the money, so far.

[lilbump3000]

Well it looks to be moving to the WNW again but im not sure. If it is that NW movement was very short lived.

[crazycajuncane]

I know another thing that was short lived..... The Chicago Bears lead over the Saints!!!!

JT O'Sullivan looks good....

Yeah, it's ok to talk a little football and get our minds off the cane!

[HurricaneBill]

The big question is how strong will she get before she begins weakening..

Didn't Mitch reach about 180-190 before he finally made landfall and God for bid killed an unconfirmed amount of people in the Caribbean..

Oh my god. I'll never forget watching Mitch getting stronger and stronger. Even though I was thousands of miles away, it was frightening to watch.

Mitch was actually a weak Category 1 when he finally made landfall on Honduras. But when he was parked off the coast of Honduras as a Category 5, some coastal areas experienced Category 3 conditions.

I heard some areas of Honduras received up to 72 inches of rain from Mitch. Now THAT'S scary!

Mitch and Georges were both grim reminders that catastrophic death tolls from hurricanes are not a thing of the past.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know another thing that was short lived..... The Chicago Bears lead over the Saints!!!!

JT O'Sullivan looks good....

Yeah, it's ok to talk a little football and get our minds off the cane!

lol that was pretty funny.

<RICKY>

[LaBreeze]

Could be just a jog, maybe?

[crazycajuncane]

I know another thing that was short lived..... The Chicago Bears lead over the Saints!!!!

JT O'Sullivan looks good....

Yeah, it's ok to talk a little football and get our minds off the cane!

lol that was pretty funny.

<RICKY>

Thanks Ricky,

Looks like the Saints have improved over the offseason.......

Oh yeah, about that Hurricane ...

[Ixolib]

Could be just a jog, maybe?

What, the Saints' win was a jog?

[obxhurricane]

Not so fast. In fact...the last few frames shows a distinct NW motion. She's not going to turn as fast as everyone seems to think...

[crazycajuncane]

Could be just a jog, maybe?

What, the Saints' win was a jog?

Watch it there Mississippi!

You notice all the Saints fans on these boards? Is it because most of the other teams aren't so damn close to the gulf?

I'm just going nuts with all the guessing and crazy predictions.... everyone go to bed and we'll see how thing are tomorrow. Enjoy the victory!

[Ixolib]

Could be just a jog, maybe?

What, the Saints' win was a jog?

Watch it there Mississippi!

You notice all the Saints fans on these boards? Is it because most of the other teams aren't so damn close to the gulf?

I'm just going nuts with all the guessing and crazy predictions.... everyone go to bed and we'll see how thing are tomorrow. Enjoy the victory!

Interesting observation... And I'll take a Saints win any way I can get it - jog or no jog.

[LaBreeze]

Heck, I was just asking about Frances. Didn't know that I was affecting the off-topic talk about the Saints.

[Ixolib]

Heck, I was just asking about Frances. Didn't know that I was affecting the off-topic talk about the Saints.

Just goofing around for a minute - no harm intended... We're done now.

[mobilebay]

For the second run in a row it shows Frances coming ashore along the North Central gulf Coast. This time Around New Orleans. I know this is a LONG way out (day 11), but it is interesting how it has took on the exact same path twice now.

[mobilebay]

Looks like we had three people starting the same thread at the same time.

[ericinmia]

it does seem that GFS has taken the same track recently for the past few runs...

Thats not a good sign for us in south fla, and those in the gulf. Esp. LA... GFS seems to have it out for you.

This sounds sort of like andrew all over again.

Here is the loop for the new 00z gfs run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

-Eric

[ericinmia]

I just went through the models again... and the AVN is looking VERY ominous for south fla.
It is predicting that the high rebuilds strong across south fla, and the storm is heading for south fla...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

-Eric

p.s. still looking through the rest

[ericinmia]

the CNC and UKMET are showing a weakness in the ridge due to the depression centered off the north-east coast of FL. This occurs when Frances is around the northern bahamas allowing the storm to take a much more northerly course. The JMA is showing another weakness much before then, taking this storm out to see before it even reaches the Bahamas.

-Eric