Frances forecast....my latest 7 day forecast analysis

[SouthernWx]

I'm not a professional meteorologist, but possess over three decades of dedicated research into hurricanes and severe storms.

Here's my take this evening on the future course of hurricane Frances...based on latest model guidance, climatology, and experience. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts and warnings.

My latest forecast:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

This evening's analysis:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000 (please click on "Perry's Stormy Thoughts").

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting. Thanks for putting in the time to prepare that for us tonight.

<RICKY>

[B-Bear]

Nice web page.

If I could make one suggestion that you can either take or leave--it would be easier to read if it was left-justified rather than centered on the page.

[Guest]

nice website.

[KeyLargoDave]

I like that forecast, with some bias. If the recurve is not going to happen before Florida, I'm looking to just be on the survivable side of the storm. I want it to get to anything over 25 degrees before hitting 80 West. That's kind of disastrous for Miami, but keeps the surge and worst winds out of the Upper Keys.

If I could ask, what factors have the greatest influence in getting it as far north as you forecast? A weakness in the ridge (developing when?), low moving east, or the ridge not building as far west as now forecast?

[SouthernWx]

If I could ask, what factors have the greatest influence in getting it as far north as you forecast? A weakness in the ridge (developing when?), low moving east, or the ridge not building as far west as now forecast?

My current thinking is once the hurricane turns back to the wnw....it won't deviate much until it impacts Florida (using model consensus to 120 hours). Beyond 5 days, I'm using the past several GFS runs...indicating a wnw or possibly even westward motion....

If I lived in the Florida Keys, I'd monitor this hurricane very closely. If the GFS is on the beam in the 6 to 10 day time frame (regarding strong high pressure building offshore New England), Frances could very well turn westward farther south than my current forecast indicates....and impact Miami, Homestead, the Keys, pass between Florida and Cuba, or even pass over Cuba into the NW Caribbean Sea).

At least based on current medium range global model guidance, if hurricane Frances misses southern Florida....odds are higher it will miss to the south than to the north.

[cape_escape]

I was ok with it until I read the following...

"FRI SEPT 03 - 11 PM EDT
26.5 n - 81.5 w. ...................115 mph
(inland/ just east of Fort Myers, FL)"

MY Lat/ Long here is 26.5836 N 81.952999 W !!!
That's just a little too close for comfort in my book!!!

I don't really undersatnd how far each degree is in miles, but, I think it sounds pretty darn close...insight highly appreciated!

[KeyLargoDave]

I don't really undersatnd how far each degree is in miles, but, I think it sounds pretty darn close...insight highly appreciated!

At my latitude, 25 N, each degree of longitude (west-east) is about 67 miles. A degree of latitude (north-south, remains constant around the globe) is about 72 miles (60 nautical miles, because each minute of arc, or 1/60th a degree, is one nautical mile).

Please correct if I made any errors, I'm doing it from memory, and it's getting late in EDT.

[cape_escape]

I don't really undersatnd how far each degree is in miles, but, I think it sounds pretty darn close...insight highly appreciated!

At my latitude, 25 N, each degree of longitude (west-east) is about 67 miles. A degree of latitude (north-south, remains constant around the globe) is about 72 miles (60 nautical miles, because each minute of arc, or 1/60th a degree, is one nautical mile).

Please correct if I made any errors, I'm doing it from memory, and it's getting late in EDT.

Thank you for clairifying that for me. Math has never been my strong point, and until recently, Geography was even worst!